I was not so wrong that I mind taking a lump or two. I was not so right that I can gloat.

Ms. Clinton’s campaign is far weaker this morning than it was 24 hours ago. I was surprised by the size of Mr. Obama’s eight-point margin of victory and Mr. Edwards squeaking into second-place by half a percentage point.

On the GOP side, I was surprised Mr. Huckabee’s margin over Mr. Romney was nine points, although unlike Mr. Huckabee, I don’t see the hand of Jesus in it. I was stunned that Fred Thompson beat John McCain for third (again, by less than half a percentage point). I think no one is more disappointed by that result than Mr. Thompson. In recent days he’s been sounding like a man looking for a reason to drop from the race and now he doesn’t have one. On to New Hampshire, Fred.

Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd did drop from the race Thursday night after each of them failed to break the one percent threshold. Inexplicably, Dems Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich and Republican Duncan Hunter – all of whom scored zero in the caucuses – are still “in” it, whatever that means.

Rudy Giuliani, who recently led national polls, finished in sixth place, behind Ron Paul, but supposedly “that’s part of the plan,” same kind of “planning” that put his emergency response center in the number one terrorist target.

New Hampshire predictions tomorrow.

On the Democratic side, my prediction is: Hillary Clinton comes out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses are complex processes with “preference groups” and “viability thresholds.” It’s important to note that this is public democracy. It’s not a secret ballot, voters have to go and stand under their candidate’s banner.

There are eight candidates on the Democratic side. After the first session, the supporters of candidates not deemed viable will be asked to stand with their candidate of second choice.

People supporting Bill Richardson or Joe Biden or Chris Dodd – all of whom are unlikely to pass the viability threshold – go into the evening knowing their man is unlikely to win, so they stand with their initial candidate to send a message. It’s a form of idealism. Ms. Clinton has not presented herself as the candidate of idealism, she presents herself as the candidate of inevitability.

For that reason, I think Barack Obama and John Edwards will pick up most of the supporters whose first choices didn’t make the cut.

I’m not saying both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards will beat Ms. Clinton, but I think one of the them will. I think Mr. Obama more likely to do so than Mr. Edwards.

This will not mean Ms. Clinton is out of the race. She has a good organization, a solid war chest and a base of support in New Hampshire. But she will come out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

On the Republican side, I think it will be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain. (n.b. – GOP caucuses in Iowa are nothing like the Democrats’. It’s straightforward ballots with no second choices.)

My sense is Mr. Huckabee wins by default, with Mr. Romney – for all the money he’s spent in Iowa – coming across as too phony. Rudy Giuliani is a) too scary and b) has not campaigned much in Iowa. Mr. McCain – who has also not campaigned much in Iowa – is the default third place finisher.

I could be wrong about third place. Ron Paul, with his zealous followers, could turn in a surprising performance.

Cheer or jeer on Friday morning.