That said, Mr. Santorum meets the qualifications to run for president of the United States.  He’s a native-born American over the age of 35.  His candidacy should succeed or fail based on the number of voters who think he’s best fit to serve in the Oval Office and only on that basis.

That, however, is not what happened in Iowa.  This morning, the Des Moines Register broke the news that rather than losing the Iowa caucuses by eight votes to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Mr. Santorum actually won them by at least 34 votes.

I have to write “at least” because the Iowa Republican Party claims the votes from eight precincts have been irretrievably lost.  Due to this, the official word on the caucuses is that it was a “tie” between Messrs. Santorum and Romney.  It wasn’t a tie on Caucus night; it was a “win” for Mr. Romney.  How is an eight-vote margin a “win” and a 34-vote (at least) margin a tie?  (Hint: It’s a “tie” when you’re trying to throw the election to Mr. Romney.)

A few days ago, pundits were saying that having won in Iowa and New Hampshire and heading into the South Carolina primary with a double-digit lead in the polls, Mr. Romney would be the first Republican to win the first three contests and had the GOP presidential nomination all but locked up.   How quickly things change.  Now the Iowa “victory” is in sincere doubt and Newt Gingrich is leading the South Carolina polls.  (We’ll see how that stands up after ABC airs an interview with Marianne Gingrich – wife number two – in which she details Mr. Gingrich’s infidelity.)

For anyone who’s confused about where all this is going, let me be clear: the Republican Party has long been the purveyor of crooked politics in this country and it’s gotten to the point where they’ve turned their nasty deeds on each other.

George W. Bush stole the 2000 election with the help of his brother Jeb, Katherine Harris and the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices.  In 2004, the GOP pulled numerous dirty tricks around the country, particularly Ohio and likely stole a second national election.  I worked on that election in Marion County, Florida and saw plenty of them.

Rick Santorum made Iowa his focus.  He visited every county, moved his family there for several weeks before the caucuses and staked all his hopes on coming out strong and building momentum.  He has, however, no chance of winning a general election and Republican politicos know this, so they apparently have done everything they can to sabotage his campaign and get him out of the race.

Given the way the Iowa Republicans have treated Mr. Santorum, I wouldn’t blame any GOP candidate for passing the state by in 2016.  It’s also worth noting that Republicans – first on a federal level during the recent Bush II administration and then at the state level – have been trying to restrict the voting rights of poor people and people of color, key democratic constituencies, with the unsubstantiated excuse of “preventing voter fraud” (even though they can’t point to any cases of voter fraud).

I’ve said in this space that since 2004, I’ve been pessimistic about the survival of American democracy.  We have now reached a point where the Republicans are willing to purge even candidates who swear fealty to every NRA and Grover Norquist litmus-test pledge, no matter how stupid.  Now they disenfranchise Mr. Santorum’s Iowa supporters with the “eight lost precincts,” a ruse so flimsy it would make Lyndon Johnson blush.

I don’t agree with Republicans, but this kind of Republican infighting does not fill me with glee.  It scares me, because if these people get any more power than they already have, this nation will be a very ugly place.  John Donne was right, no one is an island and the loss of anyone’s civil rights, even (especially!) someone with whom I disagree, diminishes mine.

© Mark Floegel, 2012

Just like global warming, we’re getting used to this crap and we don’t even notice it.  It’s the effect of the 24 hour news networks, blogs (yeah, this one too) and twitter.  The entertainment business has taken over America, including our body politic.

The platforms of Republicans, either in office or just wanting, are so detached from reality that we may as well spend our time wondering whether and who Mr. Cain hit on 15 years ago as pay attention to his 9-9-9 tax plan or hear him mocking the names of Central Asian nations.

So here’s my prediction: Obama wins re-election by less than ten points, probably less than five.  Hold me to this.

Here’s why:

1 – The Republican field is now closed.  The early primaries (10 January in New Hampshire) are now too close for a new candidate to enter the race, both in terms of filing deadlines and fundraising, assembling a staff, introducing one’s self to the public, etc. etc.  One of the nine candidates now in the race (can you name them all?*) will be the nominee.

2 – The nominee will be Mitt Romney.  Strange, but true.  The only other candidate who might have had a chance was Rick Perry, but he’s made every mistake in the book and added a chapter of his own.  This man never lost an election until now.  Sad comment on the state of Texas citizenry.

(The Iowa Electronic Markets, which allow people to mix politics and gambling, have Mr. Romney running away from the pack in both Iowa and the national GOP vote.  These markets have been fairly accurate in past elections.)

3 – The stay-at-home voter.  Second prediction: low-turnout in 2012.  Mr. Obama has disappointed many sections of his base.  They’ll stay home.  Many Republicans have had a three-year itch to vote against Mr. Obama, but come 6 November, they’ll have to put up storm windows or take a nap or just somehow never get around to going to the polls because Mr. Romney would not be the candidate if “none of the above” was a viable selection.

(The folks in Iowa have also established two markets for the general election: vote share and winner-take-all.  The Republicans are slightly ahead in the first, Democrats slightly ahead in the second.  A combination of the two jives with my Obama-by-a-nose prediction, but I’m not going by the markets, I’m going by the seat of my pants, as ever.)

I’m one of those people unhappy with Mr. Obama, the only successful presidential candidate I ever voted for.  I will not stay home next year, but I may cast my vote for an obscure third-partier, as I did in ’92 and ’96.  (I did not want Bill Clinton on my conscience.)

I have that luxury.  Mr. Obama will win Vermont’s three electoral votes and the networks will call that result by 7 p.m. Election Night.  No Republican will come here to campaign in the primary or general.  Mr. Obama will not campaign here.  No presidential candidate has visited Vermont since John McCain showed up in early 2000. (Another reason to live in Vermont!)

I went to see Mr. McCain.  He put on a good show, but in retrospect, what was then vaudeville is now Vegas.

© Mark Floegel, 2011

* Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson (yes, he’s the one you missed), Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum

The president and first lady are making a habit – a very public habit – of reserving one night a week for a date. Marriage maintenance is important for couples who’ve been together a while, especially if they have kids and the day job demands plenty of attention and energy.

So, it’s great to see the first couple going out to eat or catching a Broadway play. (Some of the Obamas’ opponents have sniped that the Broadway excursion cost the taxpayers money. They’re right. It did. What did those many long weekends in Crawford cost? Why didn’t those same people mention that?)

So I think it’s great the example-setters-in-chief are seen holding hands and making time for each other. On these warm, early-summer nights, it’s nice for Adrienne and I to take an evening stroll along the lakeside, maybe stop for a creamee. (That’s Vermont vernacular for soft-serve ice cream.)

I mentioned the Obamas’ example on one of these strolls, but I didn’t get the reaction I was hoping for. “Obama date night?” Adrienne said. “You think this is Obama date night? This is not Obama date night. This is….this is Joe Biden date night.”

Ouch.

Hey, I don’t have access to Gulfstream jets or a ranch in Texas. We all do what we can with the budget at hand. (Thus, creamees.) Still, no one wants to feel like a second-class citizen.

Gay and lesbian Americans feel like second-class citizens because, well, because they are. Lesbians and gays approach first-class citizenship here in Vermont and a handful of other states, but as far as the federal government goes, fugheddaboutit.

When Mr. Obama was running for president, he criticized the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DoMA), which defines marriage as occurring between a man and a woman. On the other hand, he’s said he thinks marriage should be between a man and a woman. (What’s the difference between saying you believe it and criticizing the law that says it? Ask law professor Barack Obama. Maybe it depends on how you define the word “was.”)

Two weeks ago today the Obama Justice Department filed a brief in federal court supporting DoMA. Perhaps there’s some room to give Mr. Obama benefit of the doubt here. Like it or not, DoMA is federal law. The executive branch does have a duty to defend legitimately passed laws, no matter how wrong-headed they may be.

The language of the brief, however, compared same-sex marriage to incest. Incest, really? Really. This is the kind of language one might expect from Rick Santorum, not Barack Obama. How does that happen? Of course, Mr. Obama didn’t write the brief himself, nor did Attorney General Eric Holder. But people who work for them did and, yes, it all does flow from the top.

Speaking of Joe Biden date nights, the vice president is hosting a Democratic fundraiser in Washington tonight in which the party will be attempting to squeeze funds from the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered (LGBT) community. Talk about bad timing.

Vermont Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin was to be honored at the dinner for his role in passing our same-sex marriage bill. After the 11 June Justice Department brief, he wrote the Dems to say he’s not coming. “By defending DOMA and making reference to horribly inaccurate and deeply hurtful stereotypes about gay and lesbian Americans,” he wrote, “the Administration has chosen discriminate against a minority group that we all have a responsibility to be more courageous in defending.”

Sen. Shumlin is not alone in passing on the dinner and Mr. Biden may well be close to alone tonight as he dines with the crickets. Unfortunately, rights for gay and lesbian Americans is not the only area where the Obama administration too closely resembles the Bush administration. There are civil liberties, global warming, government secrecy, global warming, bank regulation and global warming.

Hey, Mr. Obama! This is not about winning or losing the chess game with the Republicans and triangulating and blah, blah, blah. These issues are important to the lives of Americans today and more important tomorrow. Last November’s was a “change” election, remember? Straighten up. Fly right.

© Mark Floegel, 2009