In the end, it all comes down to weather. The war hawks in the upper echelon of the Bush administration feel the weather window on an Iraq invasion will soon be closing. We learned 12 years ago that the best time to send an army into the Babylonian desert is in early February. Early February has passed. By April, the desert will heat up rapidly, taking a toll on soldiers, tanks, trucks and helicopters.
When the U.S. went to the United Nations Security Council last November, it seemed there would be plenty of time for inspections to begin and end, then the troops could be sent in while spring was still weeks away.
White House forecasters may have their meteorology down, but they did not foresee the change in political climate. Don Rumsfeld may derisively dismiss “old Europe,” but old Europe did most of the heavy lifting in the Balkans and old Europe honors its treaty obligations, whether on global warming or the ban on atmospheric nuclear weapons or the sovereignty of the International Criminal Court.
For the past two years, G.W. Bush has been playing cowboy and shooting off his mouth. Now he comes to Europe looking for a blank check and expects trust. Who can blame Berlin for wondering why Washington has so little to say on transitioning post-war Iraq to a stable democracy? Who can blame Paris for wondering if Washington’s war will make the Mideast less, not more, stable? Who can blame anyone for casting a cold eye toward Afghanistan – a country America is walking away from very quickly; a country that looks as if it is on the verge of reliving the 1980s.
The weather seemed to favor George Bush last weekend. Cold and snow bit into the faces of protesters in cities up and down the East Coast. But neither snow nor cold nor lack of permit nor lack of police cooperation deterred half a million marchers in New York City. There were a million peace marchers in Rome, three-quarters of a million in London, half a million in Berlin.
I was in Montreal, where the temperature was well below zero on both the Fahrenheit and Centigrade scales, but 150,000 people marched through the streets. “Non a la guerre!” we chanted. “Oui a la paix!” The organizers tried to get some chants going in English, but they didn’t catch on.
By Sunday, world leaders tried to act nonchalant, but the message had gone through. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi supports U.S. military action; 80 percent of his citizens do not. For the UK’s Tony Blair, the Iraq war may be what Vietnam was for Lyndon Johnson – the road to political downfall and an unwanted legacy that overshadows his contributions to domestic politics.
Messrs. Bush and Blair hoped Hans Blix’s Valentine’s report to the Security Council would provide the justification for starting the final countdown. Instead, the report seems to have solidified the resolve of France, Germany and Russia to give the inspectors more time to do their work.
Why not? What’s the worst that can happen? Spring will follow winter and the Pentagon’s seasonal window of opportunity will close. The American soldiers will be sent home to their families. The inspectors, with more time and resources, will keep Saddam contained, probably find some weapons and destroy them. To date, far more of Saddam’s weapons have been destroyed by inspectors than by military action. And it’s a bargain. A decade of UN inspections has to be cheaper than a month of full-on war and that’s just money. Can we put a value on the lives of American soldiers or innocent Iraqi civilians?
Of course, it means that – to some extent – the Bush administration will lose face for getting the war machine all revved up and then standing down. On the other hand, Mr. Bush will gain some face for being reasonable and learning to work with others.
Winter of Our Discontent
In the end, it all comes down to weather. The war hawks in the upper echelon of the Bush administration feel the weather window on an Iraq invasion will soon be closing. We learned 12 years ago that the best time to send an army into the Babylonian desert is in early February. Early February has passed. By April, the desert will heat up rapidly, taking a toll on soldiers, tanks, trucks and helicopters.
When the U.S. went to the United Nations Security Council last November, it seemed there would be plenty of time for inspections to begin and end, then the troops could be sent in while spring was still weeks away.
White House forecasters may have their meteorology down, but they did not foresee the change in political climate. Don Rumsfeld may derisively dismiss “old Europe,” but old Europe did most of the heavy lifting in the Balkans and old Europe honors its treaty obligations, whether on global warming or the ban on atmospheric nuclear weapons or the sovereignty of the International Criminal Court.
For the past two years, G.W. Bush has been playing cowboy and shooting off his mouth. Now he comes to Europe looking for a blank check and expects trust. Who can blame Berlin for wondering why Washington has so little to say on transitioning post-war Iraq to a stable democracy? Who can blame Paris for wondering if Washington’s war will make the Mideast less, not more, stable? Who can blame anyone for casting a cold eye toward Afghanistan – a country America is walking away from very quickly; a country that looks as if it is on the verge of reliving the 1980s.
The weather seemed to favor George Bush last weekend. Cold and snow bit into the faces of protesters in cities up and down the East Coast. But neither snow nor cold nor lack of permit nor lack of police cooperation deterred half a million marchers in New York City. There were a million peace marchers in Rome, three-quarters of a million in London, half a million in Berlin.
I was in Montreal, where the temperature was well below zero on both the Fahrenheit and Centigrade scales, but 150,000 people marched through the streets. “Non a la guerre!” we chanted. “Oui a la paix!” The organizers tried to get some chants going in English, but they didn’t catch on.
By Sunday, world leaders tried to act nonchalant, but the message had gone through. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi supports U.S. military action; 80 percent of his citizens do not. For the UK’s Tony Blair, the Iraq war may be what Vietnam was for Lyndon Johnson – the road to political downfall and an unwanted legacy that overshadows his contributions to domestic politics.
Messrs. Bush and Blair hoped Hans Blix’s Valentine’s report to the Security Council would provide the justification for starting the final countdown. Instead, the report seems to have solidified the resolve of France, Germany and Russia to give the inspectors more time to do their work.
Why not? What’s the worst that can happen? Spring will follow winter and the Pentagon’s seasonal window of opportunity will close. The American soldiers will be sent home to their families. The inspectors, with more time and resources, will keep Saddam contained, probably find some weapons and destroy them. To date, far more of Saddam’s weapons have been destroyed by inspectors than by military action. And it’s a bargain. A decade of UN inspections has to be cheaper than a month of full-on war and that’s just money. Can we put a value on the lives of American soldiers or innocent Iraqi civilians?
Of course, it means that – to some extent – the Bush administration will lose face for getting the war machine all revved up and then standing down. On the other hand, Mr. Bush will gain some face for being reasonable and learning to work with others.
He could stand a bit of that.