Half a Tank

How long is forever? It’s the kind of question you might expect to hear in a metaphysics class or a bad love song, but neither of those venues is likely to produce a satisfactory answer. It often depends on context. When a president says “forever” he clearly means until the end of his term, after which he doesn’t care. Famous definitions of “forever” from American history include several dozen treaties made with Native American nations that were supposed to last “as long as the wind blows, the sun shines and the grass grows.” That particular version of forever proved to be a short time indeed.

A century later Henny Youngman reckoned he had enough money to last the rest of his life, unless he wanted to buy something. Now he’s dead and has all the money he’ll ever need. If you’re stuck in traffic, it may seem like you’ve been there forever, especially if you’re running low on gas. As a society, we know gas will not last forever, it’s a non-renewable resource. We may drive as if our oil supply will last forever, but we know it won’t. Gas is cheap now, cheaper than at any time since the 1940s, relative to the price of a steak or a pair of shoes.

Gas is cheap, but is it plentiful? How much is there? Less than there was. American oil production is down. In January, oil production in the lower 48 states fell to its lowest point in 50 years and Alaskan oil production was down 15 percent from last year.

How much oil is there? If we look at the United States as a car, then our oil reserves are the gas tank. Last month, testifying before Congress, Dr. Albert Bartlett, physics professor emeritus at the University of Colorado, said U.S oil production peaked around 1970. We had half a tank 30 years ago and it’s been dropping ever since. The U.S. now imports nearly half our oil. During the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo, we were importing about a third of our oil. That’s something to think about when you’re stuck in traffic behind the wheel of a sport utility vehicle.

That’s the U.S. gas tank. How much is in the world gas tank? Dr. Bartlett guessed we still have more than half a tank in the world car, but we’ll hit the halfway mark around 2005. That’s 2,000 days away. Then Dr. Bartlett did something surprising. He pulled out a chart showing oil production on a per capita basis. If all the oil in the world is divided equally, how much would we each get? Dr. Bartlett says global oil production is equal to 1.7 liters per person, per day. That’s about a half gallon per person, per day. Problem is, we don’t use a half-gallon of oil per day. Average American oil consumption is over two and half gallons per person, per day. For each American to consume his or her two and half gallons each day, four people, somewhere in the world, get none. Since there are 260 million Americans, a billion people go without.

The ripples from these statistics spread in every direction. We live in an oil economy. It’s not just about our gas-guzzling cars. It’s about the sprawling suburbs radiating from every city. It’s about the Argentine peach or the Chilean grape you ate for lunch, the sneakers and jeans made in Southeast Asia. Those products sail around the world on an ocean of oil. Free-trade advocates argue that a global economy gives people in less-developed nations a shot at Western-style prosperity. That’s a lie; those simple numbers from Dr. Bartlett show us we can’t even afford Western-style prosperity in the West.

The Oil Age began around 1880. By 2005, we’ve got half a tank left and we’re draining it down faster than ever. But why worry? Long before we can burn all the oil we have left, we’ll have fried ourselves off the planet.

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