Ever since the Supreme Court awarded the presidency to George W. Bush in December, two questions have been outstanding: to whom does Mr. Bush owe his victory and how will he repay them? Aside from the five pro-Bush Supreme Court justices themselves, we should look at the people who funded the Bush 2000 campaign, the most expensive in our nation’s history. Much of the campaign cash came from the oil industry, which has ties to George W. and his father and Dick Cheney. Beyond that, there are industries involved in resource extraction generally and manufacturing.
If we want to see the outlines of the Bush plan for benefiting his corporate masters, it would behoove us to meditate on last week’s meeting with Mexican President Vicente Fox.
As has been noted, Mexico is the world’s fifth-largest producer of oil and natural gas, but much of Mexico’s potential remains unexploited. One reason for this is Pemex, the national oil monopoly. Pemex is backward, slow and inefficient, and since it has no domestic competition, little incentive to improve. That’s about to change. Just before Mr. Bush’s visit, President Fox announced a new board of directors for Pemex. This board, instead of bureaucrats, is filled with businessmen, and Mr. Fox has made it clear he expects results, and soon.
This is good news for Mr. Bush. Right now, the U.S. exports oil and natural gas to Mexico. With an investment of $200 billion, Mexico could start exporting oil and natural gas to the U.S. If this happens, it will please a number of important Bush constituencies. First, it will please the U.S. oil industry. Mexican law forbids foreign ownership of oil and natural gas resources, but I’m sure Mr. Fox and the new Pemex board will find a way to cut Mr. Bush’s friends in on a piece of the action. Second, the company best positioned to upgrade the infrastructure of the Mexican oil industry is Halliburton, Dick Cheney’s old outfit. Third, if Messrs. Bush and Fox can reverse the U.S.-Mexican import-export situation, then the American economy, which floats on a sea of oil, gets a boost.
It is impossible to overstate how important it is to George W. Bush that he be able to give the economy a boost. The U.S. economy roared along throughout the Clinton administration, even if it did tail off at the end. Perhaps George W. can blame this February’s layoffs on Bill Clinton, but any layoffs in February 2002 will be entirely his. The business community, which financed Mr. Bush’s election, and will be called upon to finance his re-election campaign, expects a strong economy and it doesn’t care what Mr. Bush does to obtain it.
Fourth, there is the core constituency of the Republican right that wants a tax cut. It always wants a tax cut. It is a testament to the strength of this group that George W. is always prescribing a tax cut. If times are good, Mr. Bush says a tax cut will return the surplus to the people, if times are bad, Mr. Bush says a tax cut will stimulate the economy. In his heart, Mr. Bush knows a tax cut in hard times will not stimulate the economy, it will cause deficits, which is why he so desperately needs cheap oil and natural gas from Mexico.
Mr. Bush’s fifth and final constituency is the voting public. If, in 2004, most Americans have money in their pocket and the price of gas is cheap, Mr. Bush stands a good chance of winning re-election, and he may not even need the assist from the Supreme Court.
Increasing the supply of oil and natural gas in the western hemisphere will reduce our need for oil from elsewhere, which may help explain George W.’s tepid support for the middle east peace process and his willingness to play gunslinger in Iraq.
Chaos in the middle east is only one potential downside. God help you if you are a Mexican living near an oil field, or anyone, anywhere living near a low-lying coast, waiting for the icecaps to melt while the Bush backers collect their tribute.
The American Plan
Ever since the Supreme Court awarded the presidency to George W. Bush in December, two questions have been outstanding: to whom does Mr. Bush owe his victory and how will he repay them? Aside from the five pro-Bush Supreme Court justices themselves, we should look at the people who funded the Bush 2000 campaign, the most expensive in our nation’s history. Much of the campaign cash came from the oil industry, which has ties to George W. and his father and Dick Cheney. Beyond that, there are industries involved in resource extraction generally and manufacturing.
If we want to see the outlines of the Bush plan for benefiting his corporate masters, it would behoove us to meditate on last week’s meeting with Mexican President Vicente Fox.
As has been noted, Mexico is the world’s fifth-largest producer of oil and natural gas, but much of Mexico’s potential remains unexploited. One reason for this is Pemex, the national oil monopoly. Pemex is backward, slow and inefficient, and since it has no domestic competition, little incentive to improve. That’s about to change. Just before Mr. Bush’s visit, President Fox announced a new board of directors for Pemex. This board, instead of bureaucrats, is filled with businessmen, and Mr. Fox has made it clear he expects results, and soon.
This is good news for Mr. Bush. Right now, the U.S. exports oil and natural gas to Mexico. With an investment of $200 billion, Mexico could start exporting oil and natural gas to the U.S. If this happens, it will please a number of important Bush constituencies. First, it will please the U.S. oil industry. Mexican law forbids foreign ownership of oil and natural gas resources, but I’m sure Mr. Fox and the new Pemex board will find a way to cut Mr. Bush’s friends in on a piece of the action. Second, the company best positioned to upgrade the infrastructure of the Mexican oil industry is Halliburton, Dick Cheney’s old outfit. Third, if Messrs. Bush and Fox can reverse the U.S.-Mexican import-export situation, then the American economy, which floats on a sea of oil, gets a boost.
It is impossible to overstate how important it is to George W. Bush that he be able to give the economy a boost. The U.S. economy roared along throughout the Clinton administration, even if it did tail off at the end. Perhaps George W. can blame this February’s layoffs on Bill Clinton, but any layoffs in February 2002 will be entirely his. The business community, which financed Mr. Bush’s election, and will be called upon to finance his re-election campaign, expects a strong economy and it doesn’t care what Mr. Bush does to obtain it.
Fourth, there is the core constituency of the Republican right that wants a tax cut. It always wants a tax cut. It is a testament to the strength of this group that George W. is always prescribing a tax cut. If times are good, Mr. Bush says a tax cut will return the surplus to the people, if times are bad, Mr. Bush says a tax cut will stimulate the economy. In his heart, Mr. Bush knows a tax cut in hard times will not stimulate the economy, it will cause deficits, which is why he so desperately needs cheap oil and natural gas from Mexico.
Mr. Bush’s fifth and final constituency is the voting public. If, in 2004, most Americans have money in their pocket and the price of gas is cheap, Mr. Bush stands a good chance of winning re-election, and he may not even need the assist from the Supreme Court.
Increasing the supply of oil and natural gas in the western hemisphere will reduce our need for oil from elsewhere, which may help explain George W.’s tepid support for the middle east peace process and his willingness to play gunslinger in Iraq.
Chaos in the middle east is only one potential downside. God help you if you are a Mexican living near an oil field, or anyone, anywhere living near a low-lying coast, waiting for the icecaps to melt while the Bush backers collect their tribute.