Having been a low-grade pundit for a few election cycles, I’ve learned not to make pre-election predictions. Good thing, too, because I would not have predicted these outcomes. I haven’t learned to avoid post-election predictions, so I may yet come to grief.
Some things we know for sure. The first is that Democrats cannot blame Ralph Nader for this year’s election debacle. The second surety is that the 2002 mid-term election marks the end of the Kennedy political dynasty. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, RFK’s daughter, was upset in her bid to become governor of Maryland by Republican Robert Ehrlich. Her defeat is made all the more ignominious in that it is the first time a Republican has occupied the governor’s mansion in Annapolis in 34 years, the last resident being the disgraced Spiro Agnew. Ms. Townsend’s brother-in-law, Andrew Cuomo couldn’t stir up enough Kennedy (or Cuomo) magic to make it through New York’s gubernatorial primary. In Florida, Jeb Bush hung on for a second term, confirming that the Bushes are America’s only functioning political dynasty.
Already radio commentators are repeating that people get the government they deserve, but what did we do to deserve this? The U.S. Senate reconvenes next week, with Trent Lott back in the majority leader’s seat. Jim Talent, who won Missouri’s special election, will be seated immediately, giving the GOP a 50 to 48 to two majority. The independents are Vermont’s Jim Jeffords and Minnesota’s Dean Barkley, who will serve out the unexpired term of Paul Wellstone. Mr. Barkley has yet to indicate whether he will caucus with the Republicans or Democrats, but between Jim Talent and Dick Cheney, it’s a moot question. Senate Republicans will lose a member on December 2nd, when Frank Murkowski is inaugurated as Alaska’s governor. Governor Murkowski will not be able to appoint anyone to fill his unexpired term until December 7th. Given all these arrivals and departures, it’s doubtful much will be accomplished in the 107th Congress’s lame duck session.
Here in the Green Mountain Republic, we elected neither a governor nor lieutenant governor Tuesday. In three-way races for each office, no candidate captured 50 percent of the vote. When the new legislature convenes in January, the first order of business will be to select the governor and lieutenant governor by secret ballot. Throughout the election season, the Democratic candidates held firm to the position that whoever receives the most votes should be awarded the office. Now the election is over, Republicans have the most votes for each office and the Democrats bowed out Wednesday – even though their party has enough votes in the legislature to install them into office. They might not be winners, but they’ve got class.
If anything, the Vermont election is a good advertisement for Instant Runoff Voting, or IRV. On an IRV ballot, voters pick their first, second and third choices for each office. If no candidate receives a clear majority, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and the second-choice names from those ballots are counted. The process continues until a winner emerges. If Vermont had an IRV system, our next governor would be picked by the voters and we wouldn’t have to rely on the good manners of individuals to save us from turmoil.
Vote your hopes, not your fears. I suppose it depends on what you hope for. If you hope tax cuts for the wealthy are made permanent, 2003 will be a good year for you. If you hope for more oil drilling and less environmental protection, your wishes will soon come true. If you fear the U.S. is going to war – in Iraq or elsewhere – your fears may be realized.
In 2003, we can expect to see President Bush become the Radical Republican he was before Jim Jeffords gave the Senate to the Democrats. In 2004, Radical George will be replaced by Moderate George, his election-year doppelganger. Unless, of course, we’re at war and Heroic George is brought front and center. If the political generalissimos at the White House get their way, the Second Gulf War victory parade will march up Pennsylvania Avenue in mid-October 2004 and the Bush dynasty will get another term two weeks later.
Can’t Blame Ralph
Having been a low-grade pundit for a few election cycles, I’ve learned not to make pre-election predictions. Good thing, too, because I would not have predicted these outcomes. I haven’t learned to avoid post-election predictions, so I may yet come to grief.
Some things we know for sure. The first is that Democrats cannot blame Ralph Nader for this year’s election debacle. The second surety is that the 2002 mid-term election marks the end of the Kennedy political dynasty. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, RFK’s daughter, was upset in her bid to become governor of Maryland by Republican Robert Ehrlich. Her defeat is made all the more ignominious in that it is the first time a Republican has occupied the governor’s mansion in Annapolis in 34 years, the last resident being the disgraced Spiro Agnew. Ms. Townsend’s brother-in-law, Andrew Cuomo couldn’t stir up enough Kennedy (or Cuomo) magic to make it through New York’s gubernatorial primary. In Florida, Jeb Bush hung on for a second term, confirming that the Bushes are America’s only functioning political dynasty.
Already radio commentators are repeating that people get the government they deserve, but what did we do to deserve this? The U.S. Senate reconvenes next week, with Trent Lott back in the majority leader’s seat. Jim Talent, who won Missouri’s special election, will be seated immediately, giving the GOP a 50 to 48 to two majority. The independents are Vermont’s Jim Jeffords and Minnesota’s Dean Barkley, who will serve out the unexpired term of Paul Wellstone. Mr. Barkley has yet to indicate whether he will caucus with the Republicans or Democrats, but between Jim Talent and Dick Cheney, it’s a moot question. Senate Republicans will lose a member on December 2nd, when Frank Murkowski is inaugurated as Alaska’s governor. Governor Murkowski will not be able to appoint anyone to fill his unexpired term until December 7th. Given all these arrivals and departures, it’s doubtful much will be accomplished in the 107th Congress’s lame duck session.
Here in the Green Mountain Republic, we elected neither a governor nor lieutenant governor Tuesday. In three-way races for each office, no candidate captured 50 percent of the vote. When the new legislature convenes in January, the first order of business will be to select the governor and lieutenant governor by secret ballot. Throughout the election season, the Democratic candidates held firm to the position that whoever receives the most votes should be awarded the office. Now the election is over, Republicans have the most votes for each office and the Democrats bowed out Wednesday – even though their party has enough votes in the legislature to install them into office. They might not be winners, but they’ve got class.
If anything, the Vermont election is a good advertisement for Instant Runoff Voting, or IRV. On an IRV ballot, voters pick their first, second and third choices for each office. If no candidate receives a clear majority, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and the second-choice names from those ballots are counted. The process continues until a winner emerges. If Vermont had an IRV system, our next governor would be picked by the voters and we wouldn’t have to rely on the good manners of individuals to save us from turmoil.
Vote your hopes, not your fears. I suppose it depends on what you hope for. If you hope tax cuts for the wealthy are made permanent, 2003 will be a good year for you. If you hope for more oil drilling and less environmental protection, your wishes will soon come true. If you fear the U.S. is going to war – in Iraq or elsewhere – your fears may be realized.
In 2003, we can expect to see President Bush become the Radical Republican he was before Jim Jeffords gave the Senate to the Democrats. In 2004, Radical George will be replaced by Moderate George, his election-year doppelganger. Unless, of course, we’re at war and Heroic George is brought front and center. If the political generalissimos at the White House get their way, the Second Gulf War victory parade will march up Pennsylvania Avenue in mid-October 2004 and the Bush dynasty will get another term two weeks later.
Unless they forget – it’s the economy, stupid.