Out in California

Out in California, they’ve got an economic crisis. The new fiscal year has begun for the Golden State, no budget is in place and there’s a $34 billion deficit. State offices are closing or cutting back, state services are being stopped for lack of available funds. Because of the budget shortfall, it will be a long time – if ever – before they return. California’s high tech industries were hit hard when the technology business bubble burst in 2000. Since then, the federal government has been passing its responsibilities along to the states at an accelerating rate. As California is the most populous state, it has the largest burden of services to pick up when the feds drop them.

California can’t raise its taxes. Democrats control the governor’s office and both houses of the legislature, but they don’t have the supermajority needed to pass a tax increase. Republican leaders vow political death to any GOP legislator who dares throw the Dems a lifeline.

Out in California, they’ve got a political crisis. The state has a recall law on the books and millionaire Republican Congressman Darrell Issa is bankrolling a petition campaign to put a recall of Democratic Governor Gray Davis on the November ballot. If a majority of voters choose recall, they select a new governor on the same ballot. Republicans, from Mr. Issa to Arnold Schwarzeneggar, are testing the political wind and thinking about making the jump.

Out in California, they’ve got an energy crisis. It’s not so bad now, but in 2000 there were rolling blackouts and all manner of chaos. The $12 billion price tag on that energy crisis plays a significant role in the economic and political crises I just mentioned. When California was in the throes of its energy debacle, analysts said it was because construction of power plants – the supply side – lagged behind population and industrial growth – the demand side. Analysts said the energy crisis was the result of California’s overly burdensome environmental regulations. We know now the California energy crisis was manufactured by energy producers, traders and distributors, Enron among them. The energy companies deliberately manipulated the market, generating the California power shortage to send prices and profits through the roof. Many of the same energy executives, after they engineered the California crisis, but before their indictments, sat down in top-secret meetings with Vice President Dick Cheney to plot the national energy policy.

California, as I said, is the largest state in the nation. It has 55 electoral votes, more than any other state. California is a Democratic state; its governor and both senators are Democrats. Al Gore carried California by a wide margin in 2000; Bill Clinton carried the state by a wider margin in 1996. In 2000, California had a manufactured energy crisis. Now it has an economic crisis and a political crisis.

News reports say America is facing a natural gas crisis. Production is down and the long, cold winter just past drew national reserves down to a dangerously low level. Analysts say natural gas suppliers may not have time to top off their reserves before demand begins to rise again in autumn, just 90 days away. Analysts say that if next winter is as cold as last winter, natural gas prices – already high – may double or triple. In a worst-case scenario, there might not be enough pressure in natural gas lines to keep pilot lights burning. Instead of the “rolling blackouts” California endured a few years back, the northern states might see “rolling freezeouts.” The chaos would spread from natural gas to other sectors of the energy market, as people shut down their gas water heaters and use their electric stoves instead. Kerosene heaters and propane stoves would fly from the shelves.

Two thousand four is a presidential election year. Standing for the Republicans are George Bush and Dick Cheney, both with roots in the energy industry, the same energy industry that cooked up a power crisis that crippled Democratic California.

It couldn’t happen to the rest of us, could it?

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