In politics, especially international politics, it’s important that a nation’s deeds conform to its words; that actions taken by a nation, especially a powerful nation, are consistent with that nation’s stated goals. Or not, whichever is most convenient on a given day.
A year ago, senior officials of the Bush administration fanned out in all directions, warning the world that Saddam must be subdued because his weapons of mass destruction posed a clear, immediate threat to the stability of the Middle East and the safety of the American people. It has now been over eight months since George Bush danced his victory jig on the deck of the aircraft carrier; no weapon of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical or biological – has ever been found. Over the summer, the reason for the Iraq invasion changed from a pre-emptive strike against WMDs to the birth of democracy for Iraq, which would transform the Middle East from a conclave of despots to a league of free republics. Such a transition, we were told, would be neither quick nor easy. Most estimates calculated that a new constitution and elections would not usher a free Iraqi government into power until 2006, 2005 at the earliest. Democracy takes time, Americans understand that. It took the 13 colonies 11 years to get from the Declaration of Independence to the preamble of the Constitution, and we had Washington, Jefferson, Hamilton and Madison working on it. For the Iraqis, emerging from decades of oppression by Saddam and the Baathists, to form a government by 2006 would be nothing short of a miracle. The first task – drafting a constitution – just concluded in Afghanistan, after a two-year process.
Ah, but that was last summer. Then the bombs kept exploding, the helicopters started falling from the sky and the soldiers kept coming home in coffins. Mr. Bush may not allow anyone to photograph them, but the coffins keep coming and now it’s an election year. Now it is declared that by the first of July, less than six months from today, the nation of Iraq will have a government of its own and the U.S. will hand political power to it. Iraq will not have a constitution by July, but Mr. Bush – who seems to have little affection for his own constitution – cannot wait for such details.
The Iraqi people will have their own government and the Kurds will have their own army. Two armies, actually, and the armies are somewhat competitive. The Bush administration refers to the Kurdish armies as “militias” and has no intention to take weapons away from the Kurdish armies. That issue will be turned over to the new Iraqi government. The Americans will also allow the Kurds to maintain their semi-autonomous government in northern Iraq, which has been up and running since 1991. It is hoped that someday the Kurds will voluntarily cede their political autonomy to the central government in Baghdad – perhaps when they disband their armies – but that will be an issue for the fledgling Iraqi government to work out. Perhaps the Kurds will attempt to use their armies to liberate Kurdish areas in southeastern Turkey and western Iran. Mr. Bush sincerely hopes that will not happen, but the Americans have a schedule to keep and the new Baghdad government will have to negotiate all that with the Kurds, Turkey and Iran. Surely we wish them luck.
In southern Iraq, Shi’ite Muslims also have their own army. As with the Kurds, the Bush administration calls this army a “militia,” and declines to have that army disband or disarm. Unlike the Kurds, the Shi’ites don’t have a semi-autonomous government. They don’t need one. Shi’ites constitute a majority in Iraq and if they discipline their votes, they can take over the whole country. Shi’ite leaders are calling for the new Iraq to be an Islamic Republic, like Iran. If they prevail, the U.S. will turn political authority over to the mullahs. Some fun, eh?
Of course, the Americans will only cede political authority. The U.S. will retain actual (i.e. military) authority, because when the civilians will come home, around 100,000 troops will remain in Iraq. Those troops will not take orders from an Iraqi civilian government. The U.S. Army will remain, because in addition to the Kurdish and Shi’ite armies, there is the army of the anti-U.S. resistance. That army will continue to kill American soldiers, even if the Americans hand over political power, even if George Bush continues to ban photos of the coffins of the fallen and the nation of Iraq will still be a long, long way from democracy, regardless of what the White House says.
Born on the First of July
In politics, especially international politics, it’s important that a nation’s deeds conform to its words; that actions taken by a nation, especially a powerful nation, are consistent with that nation’s stated goals. Or not, whichever is most convenient on a given day.
A year ago, senior officials of the Bush administration fanned out in all directions, warning the world that Saddam must be subdued because his weapons of mass destruction posed a clear, immediate threat to the stability of the Middle East and the safety of the American people. It has now been over eight months since George Bush danced his victory jig on the deck of the aircraft carrier; no weapon of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical or biological – has ever been found. Over the summer, the reason for the Iraq invasion changed from a pre-emptive strike against WMDs to the birth of democracy for Iraq, which would transform the Middle East from a conclave of despots to a league of free republics. Such a transition, we were told, would be neither quick nor easy. Most estimates calculated that a new constitution and elections would not usher a free Iraqi government into power until 2006, 2005 at the earliest. Democracy takes time, Americans understand that. It took the 13 colonies 11 years to get from the Declaration of Independence to the preamble of the Constitution, and we had Washington, Jefferson, Hamilton and Madison working on it. For the Iraqis, emerging from decades of oppression by Saddam and the Baathists, to form a government by 2006 would be nothing short of a miracle. The first task – drafting a constitution – just concluded in Afghanistan, after a two-year process.
Ah, but that was last summer. Then the bombs kept exploding, the helicopters started falling from the sky and the soldiers kept coming home in coffins. Mr. Bush may not allow anyone to photograph them, but the coffins keep coming and now it’s an election year. Now it is declared that by the first of July, less than six months from today, the nation of Iraq will have a government of its own and the U.S. will hand political power to it. Iraq will not have a constitution by July, but Mr. Bush – who seems to have little affection for his own constitution – cannot wait for such details.
The Iraqi people will have their own government and the Kurds will have their own army. Two armies, actually, and the armies are somewhat competitive. The Bush administration refers to the Kurdish armies as “militias” and has no intention to take weapons away from the Kurdish armies. That issue will be turned over to the new Iraqi government. The Americans will also allow the Kurds to maintain their semi-autonomous government in northern Iraq, which has been up and running since 1991. It is hoped that someday the Kurds will voluntarily cede their political autonomy to the central government in Baghdad – perhaps when they disband their armies – but that will be an issue for the fledgling Iraqi government to work out. Perhaps the Kurds will attempt to use their armies to liberate Kurdish areas in southeastern Turkey and western Iran. Mr. Bush sincerely hopes that will not happen, but the Americans have a schedule to keep and the new Baghdad government will have to negotiate all that with the Kurds, Turkey and Iran. Surely we wish them luck.
In southern Iraq, Shi’ite Muslims also have their own army. As with the Kurds, the Bush administration calls this army a “militia,” and declines to have that army disband or disarm. Unlike the Kurds, the Shi’ites don’t have a semi-autonomous government. They don’t need one. Shi’ites constitute a majority in Iraq and if they discipline their votes, they can take over the whole country. Shi’ite leaders are calling for the new Iraq to be an Islamic Republic, like Iran. If they prevail, the U.S. will turn political authority over to the mullahs. Some fun, eh?
Of course, the Americans will only cede political authority. The U.S. will retain actual (i.e. military) authority, because when the civilians will come home, around 100,000 troops will remain in Iraq. Those troops will not take orders from an Iraqi civilian government. The U.S. Army will remain, because in addition to the Kurdish and Shi’ite armies, there is the army of the anti-U.S. resistance. That army will continue to kill American soldiers, even if the Americans hand over political power, even if George Bush continues to ban photos of the coffins of the fallen and the nation of Iraq will still be a long, long way from democracy, regardless of what the White House says.