There’s an old saying about paybacks; if you want proof of its veracity, cast a cold eye toward Iraq. Through most of Iraq’s history, the nation was dominated by Sunni Muslim Arabs, to the detriment of Kurds in the north and Shi’ite Arabs in the south. Although Sunnis account for only 20 percent of Iraq’s population, for years they were the dominant 20 percent. Sunni behavior was never pretty, but during the Saddam years came the massacres of Kurds and Shi’ites, men and women, young and old, with bullets and gas.
Now Saddam is gone, the U.S. military is in charge and everyone is talking about the shape of Iraq’s future. For the Bush administration, that project is wrapped in rhetoric about “establishing a model of democracy in the Middle East.” For the Shi’ites and Kurds, it’s about leveling a long-lopsided playing field.
Here are the competing visions for Iraq’s future:
The American Plan – The Bush administration is calling for convening a series of regional caucuses, which would produce delegates, who in turn will select an interim government balanced along religious, ethnic, tribal and regional lines. The U.S. wants the Coalition Provisional Authority to cede political power to this group on June 30th. The caucus-grown interim government would remain in place until national elections could be held, probably in 2006.
There are several problems with the American Plan. One problem is no one seems to know exactly how the caucus system is supposed to work. Another problem is that with 150 days left and the clock running, it may be too late to put the American Plan into action. The third – and perhaps biggest – problem is that the only thing all Iraqis can agree on is that they think the American Plan stinks.
Driving the Bush plan for Iraqi elections is the Bush plan for American elections. If George Bush can break out his “Mission Accomplished” sign again on June 30th, he believes it will bolster his chances of re-election. It’s more of his “The hell with everyone else, what’s in it for me?” agenda. It’s his only agenda, really.
The Shi’ite Plan – The Shi’ite Plan is simple: let’s vote now. Of course this is the Shi’ite Plan, Shi’ite Arabs account for 60 percent of all Iraqis. Shi’ites are organized and there’s plenty of reason to think that whenever general elections are held, the Shi’ites will walk away with all the power.
The Shi’ite Plan is backed by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most-respected Shi’ite cleric. Ayatollah Sistani says he has no interest in political power, but then he’s never had the chance to hold any before. Who knows? He might like it.
The Kurds recently joined the Shi’ites’s call for general elections. The two groups say open elections can be held in their relatively calm regions and if the “Sunni Triangle” in central Iraq is still too tempestuous, well, the Americans can have their caucuses there. If that sounds as if the Kurds and Shi’ites are mocking the Americans, you’re right.
The Iraqi Governing Council Plan – The Iraqi Governing Council is the American –picked body that represents Iraqis who work with the Coalition Provisional Authority. It’s full of Bush cronies like Ahmed Chalabi, the former exile whose Iraqi National Congress cooked up much of the bogus WMD intelligence that was seized upon so eagerly by Dick Cheney and the neocons.
Like nature, the Iraqi Governing Council abhors a vacuum, and seeing a disagreement with Kurds and Shi’ites on one side and Americans on the other, the governing council stepped up and volunteered to take over the country on June 30th. This in turn led to the bizarre spectacle of the usual “anonymous senior U.S. officials” saying their handpicked collaborators are trying to usurp power and cannot be trusted.
If this is what the Bushies mean when they speak of “establishing democracy in the Middle East,” perhaps we should go back to looking for the weapons of mass destruction.
Democracy One-Oh-One
There’s an old saying about paybacks; if you want proof of its veracity, cast a cold eye toward Iraq. Through most of Iraq’s history, the nation was dominated by Sunni Muslim Arabs, to the detriment of Kurds in the north and Shi’ite Arabs in the south. Although Sunnis account for only 20 percent of Iraq’s population, for years they were the dominant 20 percent. Sunni behavior was never pretty, but during the Saddam years came the massacres of Kurds and Shi’ites, men and women, young and old, with bullets and gas.
Now Saddam is gone, the U.S. military is in charge and everyone is talking about the shape of Iraq’s future. For the Bush administration, that project is wrapped in rhetoric about “establishing a model of democracy in the Middle East.” For the Shi’ites and Kurds, it’s about leveling a long-lopsided playing field.
Here are the competing visions for Iraq’s future:
The American Plan – The Bush administration is calling for convening a series of regional caucuses, which would produce delegates, who in turn will select an interim government balanced along religious, ethnic, tribal and regional lines. The U.S. wants the Coalition Provisional Authority to cede political power to this group on June 30th. The caucus-grown interim government would remain in place until national elections could be held, probably in 2006.
There are several problems with the American Plan. One problem is no one seems to know exactly how the caucus system is supposed to work. Another problem is that with 150 days left and the clock running, it may be too late to put the American Plan into action. The third – and perhaps biggest – problem is that the only thing all Iraqis can agree on is that they think the American Plan stinks.
Driving the Bush plan for Iraqi elections is the Bush plan for American elections. If George Bush can break out his “Mission Accomplished” sign again on June 30th, he believes it will bolster his chances of re-election. It’s more of his “The hell with everyone else, what’s in it for me?” agenda. It’s his only agenda, really.
The Shi’ite Plan – The Shi’ite Plan is simple: let’s vote now. Of course this is the Shi’ite Plan, Shi’ite Arabs account for 60 percent of all Iraqis. Shi’ites are organized and there’s plenty of reason to think that whenever general elections are held, the Shi’ites will walk away with all the power.
The Shi’ite Plan is backed by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most-respected Shi’ite cleric. Ayatollah Sistani says he has no interest in political power, but then he’s never had the chance to hold any before. Who knows? He might like it.
The Kurds recently joined the Shi’ites’s call for general elections. The two groups say open elections can be held in their relatively calm regions and if the “Sunni Triangle” in central Iraq is still too tempestuous, well, the Americans can have their caucuses there. If that sounds as if the Kurds and Shi’ites are mocking the Americans, you’re right.
The Iraqi Governing Council Plan – The Iraqi Governing Council is the American –picked body that represents Iraqis who work with the Coalition Provisional Authority. It’s full of Bush cronies like Ahmed Chalabi, the former exile whose Iraqi National Congress cooked up much of the bogus WMD intelligence that was seized upon so eagerly by Dick Cheney and the neocons.
Like nature, the Iraqi Governing Council abhors a vacuum, and seeing a disagreement with Kurds and Shi’ites on one side and Americans on the other, the governing council stepped up and volunteered to take over the country on June 30th. This in turn led to the bizarre spectacle of the usual “anonymous senior U.S. officials” saying their handpicked collaborators are trying to usurp power and cannot be trusted.
If this is what the Bushies mean when they speak of “establishing democracy in the Middle East,” perhaps we should go back to looking for the weapons of mass destruction.
(c) Mark Floegel, 2004