Sometime between now and the June 30th deadline for handing over “full sovereignty” to the new Iraqi government, some American representative will have to walk into the Iraqi desert and count the grains of sand, to make sure they’re all handed over. The unlucky bureaucrat assigned to this task can use neither supercomputer nor statistical modeling method; the only tools allowed will be a pencil, notebook and magnifying glass. It may sound absurd, but is it any more absurd than anything else going on in Iraq these days?
The new government is announced and three of the top five spots have gone to members of the now-disbanded Iraqi Governing Council, the discredited puppets of the American occupiers. The new prime minister, Iyad Allawi, is a Shi’ite, a former member of Saddam’s Ba’ath Party and a longtime fixture on the CIA payroll. The new president is a symbolic man for a symbolic office. Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar is a Sunni Arab who grew up in Mosul, a northern city near Kurdish territory and is a leader of the Shammar tribe, which has many Shi’ite members. He spent much of the past 20 years in Saudi Arabia, which will come in handy on the oil front.
Left distinctly out of power is Ahmed Chalabi, who once thought he might become Iraq’s new dictator on the strength of the bogus WMD information he sold the White House for so long. Now he’s accused of telling Iran that the US has broken its secret code. Why should the Iranians believe him? The likelihood of Mr. Chalabi telling the truth is remote, at best. Somewhere in the desert, the bureaucrat begins to count. “One, two, three, four…”
The Allawi/al-Yawar government will be “fully sovereign” on June 30th. To assist it will be a 34-member cabinet and a 100-member national council, whose members will be chosen in July, with input from the Americans and the UN representative. The national council will be able to veto decisions of the government, but only by a two-thirds vote. The permanent government elected in January will be tasked with writing a constitution to succeed the interim constitution, forced on Iraq by the Americans. According to that constitution, the Kurds have the right to veto the permanent constitution if they think they do not have sufficient autonomy in their northern territory. In the desert, the bureaucrat wipes sweat from his brow and continues counting. “Eight hundred forty-seen, eight hundred forty-eight, eight hundred forty-nine…”
The new Iraqi government will have “full sovereignty” on June 30th, but the U.S will still have 140,000 troops in country. On Monday, the general in charge of Baghdad operations said American troops from now on will spend less time fighting insurgents and more time guarding things – pipelines, power plants, refineries. At the same time, the Army is proceeding with its investigation of Abu Ghraib torture and is looking into reports that American troops have been beating and robbing Iraqi civilians.
Meanwhile, the number and influence of Iraqi militias continues to grow. The veto-wielding Kurds have two armies in the north. The Shi’ites have several militias, including that of Moqtada al-Sadr. A few weeks ago, American generals said they wanted to arrest or kill Mr. al-Sadr, because he was alleged to have engineered the murder of a rival cleric last year. This week, American diplomats say they hope the national council process will bring Mr. al-Sadr back into the mainstream. Vultures circle the bureaucrat in the desert, but he counts on. “Four thousand, two hundred eighteen, four thousand, two hundred nineteen, four thousand, two hundred, twenty…”
Instead of the Middle East’s shining democracy, Iraq looks poised for a slide into factional warlordism, just like Afghanistan, another country with a U.S.-picked government. The president there is a prisoner in his capital and the election to pick a permanent government has been delayed.
Iraq’s problems are as numerous as its desert sands and just as hard to manage.
Fool Sovereignty
Sometime between now and the June 30th deadline for handing over “full sovereignty” to the new Iraqi government, some American representative will have to walk into the Iraqi desert and count the grains of sand, to make sure they’re all handed over. The unlucky bureaucrat assigned to this task can use neither supercomputer nor statistical modeling method; the only tools allowed will be a pencil, notebook and magnifying glass. It may sound absurd, but is it any more absurd than anything else going on in Iraq these days?
The new government is announced and three of the top five spots have gone to members of the now-disbanded Iraqi Governing Council, the discredited puppets of the American occupiers. The new prime minister, Iyad Allawi, is a Shi’ite, a former member of Saddam’s Ba’ath Party and a longtime fixture on the CIA payroll. The new president is a symbolic man for a symbolic office. Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar is a Sunni Arab who grew up in Mosul, a northern city near Kurdish territory and is a leader of the Shammar tribe, which has many Shi’ite members. He spent much of the past 20 years in Saudi Arabia, which will come in handy on the oil front.
Left distinctly out of power is Ahmed Chalabi, who once thought he might become Iraq’s new dictator on the strength of the bogus WMD information he sold the White House for so long. Now he’s accused of telling Iran that the US has broken its secret code. Why should the Iranians believe him? The likelihood of Mr. Chalabi telling the truth is remote, at best. Somewhere in the desert, the bureaucrat begins to count. “One, two, three, four…”
The Allawi/al-Yawar government will be “fully sovereign” on June 30th. To assist it will be a 34-member cabinet and a 100-member national council, whose members will be chosen in July, with input from the Americans and the UN representative. The national council will be able to veto decisions of the government, but only by a two-thirds vote. The permanent government elected in January will be tasked with writing a constitution to succeed the interim constitution, forced on Iraq by the Americans. According to that constitution, the Kurds have the right to veto the permanent constitution if they think they do not have sufficient autonomy in their northern territory. In the desert, the bureaucrat wipes sweat from his brow and continues counting. “Eight hundred forty-seen, eight hundred forty-eight, eight hundred forty-nine…”
The new Iraqi government will have “full sovereignty” on June 30th, but the U.S will still have 140,000 troops in country. On Monday, the general in charge of Baghdad operations said American troops from now on will spend less time fighting insurgents and more time guarding things – pipelines, power plants, refineries. At the same time, the Army is proceeding with its investigation of Abu Ghraib torture and is looking into reports that American troops have been beating and robbing Iraqi civilians.
Meanwhile, the number and influence of Iraqi militias continues to grow. The veto-wielding Kurds have two armies in the north. The Shi’ites have several militias, including that of Moqtada al-Sadr. A few weeks ago, American generals said they wanted to arrest or kill Mr. al-Sadr, because he was alleged to have engineered the murder of a rival cleric last year. This week, American diplomats say they hope the national council process will bring Mr. al-Sadr back into the mainstream. Vultures circle the bureaucrat in the desert, but he counts on. “Four thousand, two hundred eighteen, four thousand, two hundred nineteen, four thousand, two hundred, twenty…”
Instead of the Middle East’s shining democracy, Iraq looks poised for a slide into factional warlordism, just like Afghanistan, another country with a U.S.-picked government. The president there is a prisoner in his capital and the election to pick a permanent government has been delayed.
Iraq’s problems are as numerous as its desert sands and just as hard to manage.
(c) Mark Floegel, 2004