There’s an old joke about a mountain guide who tells his climbing party: “Watch your step on this ledge, if you slip you’ll fall 400 feet. If you do slip, however, look to your right, you’ll never see a view like that again in your life.”
We are all of us stepping along a ledge just below the summit of Hubbert’s Peak and regardless of how we step, there is no easy way down. Hubbert’s Peak is named for M. King Hubbert, a petro-geologist who showed that production from any given oil well can be plotted on a parabolic curve. The peak of the curve – the halfway point – is reached simultaneously with maximum production. Expanding his equation, Mr. Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would reach maximum production – and be halfway to depletion – in the early 1970s. Many in the oil business laughed, but Mr. Hubbert was right and U.S. production peaked between 1970 and 1972.
Mr. Hubbert didn’t have the data to predict the global oil peak, but some geologists say it’s coming soon. Princeton economist Kenneth Deffeyes says we’ll hit the peak by early 2006, others say 2010 or 2015. In the 120-odd years we’ve been using petroleum products, we’ve steadily increased supply, which is good because demand has risen all those years. Signs that we’re approaching the peak are clear. The price of oil has increased by $20 per barrel in the past year. Oil companies – while logging record profits – are not reporting significant finds of new oil reserves, are not building new supertankers and are not building new refineries. They know what’s coming, but unlike Mr. Deffeyes, they won’t admit it.
At the same time, India and China are industrializing rapidly, causing an historic spurt in demand for oil. Shortly after we go over the peak, demand for oil will exceed supply and although we’ll still be sitting on half of the planet’s original oil supply, we’ll experience our real 9-11, because life will never be the same again. We will not slowly decrease our oil use the same way we increased it. We’ll use huge amounts of oil fighting wars to determine who controls what’s left.
Look for the People’s Republic of China to push west. Why is the United States so interested in establishing air bases in central Asia? To get between the People’s Repubic of China and the oil in the Persian Gulf. When push comes to shove, it will be the U.S and China pushing and shoving over oil; it might get nuclear. The Pentagon would rather get nuclear in Tajikistan than North America or the gulf states. The U.S. Army will permanently occupy Iraq and from Iraq attempt to control oil fields from Iran to Saudi Arabia. The nightmare for the White House – regardless of its occupant – is that the Saudis stop sharing their oil with America, forcing the U.S. Army to cross the Saudi border and igniting global jihad. Unlike the religious right, American military professionals do not long for Armageddon, but they will risk it to keep the oil flowing. It’s likely this issue was on the agenda for Dick Cheney’s secret energy meetings, if not the main topic. We’ll probably have enough troops (after the draft is reinstated) to secure Mexican and Venezuelan oil.
On the home front, the price of gas will keep going up. So long, Humvees. So long, flying overseas (or anywhere else) for vacation. Deployment, yes; vacation, no. No more questions about “paper or plastic” bags. Plastic will be the expensive, not the cheap option. Learn to whittle. Pharmaceuticals, pesticides, large-scale agriculture, trucking produce from one end of the continent to the other will fade away, not overnight, but within 20 years of passing Hubbert’s Peak. Argentine peaches and Chilean grapes during the winter months will be a memory, probably within the lifespan of Americans now in middle age.
Take a look around, realize what you have; you’ll never see a view like this again in your life. Have a banana, savor the taste, and store it in your memory. Learn to garden, plant an orchard and get to know your neighbors. In the years to come you’ll be relying on them – and they on you – like never before.
Have a Banana
There’s an old joke about a mountain guide who tells his climbing party: “Watch your step on this ledge, if you slip you’ll fall 400 feet. If you do slip, however, look to your right, you’ll never see a view like that again in your life.”
We are all of us stepping along a ledge just below the summit of Hubbert’s Peak and regardless of how we step, there is no easy way down. Hubbert’s Peak is named for M. King Hubbert, a petro-geologist who showed that production from any given oil well can be plotted on a parabolic curve. The peak of the curve – the halfway point – is reached simultaneously with maximum production. Expanding his equation, Mr. Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would reach maximum production – and be halfway to depletion – in the early 1970s. Many in the oil business laughed, but Mr. Hubbert was right and U.S. production peaked between 1970 and 1972.
Mr. Hubbert didn’t have the data to predict the global oil peak, but some geologists say it’s coming soon. Princeton economist Kenneth Deffeyes says we’ll hit the peak by early 2006, others say 2010 or 2015. In the 120-odd years we’ve been using petroleum products, we’ve steadily increased supply, which is good because demand has risen all those years. Signs that we’re approaching the peak are clear. The price of oil has increased by $20 per barrel in the past year. Oil companies – while logging record profits – are not reporting significant finds of new oil reserves, are not building new supertankers and are not building new refineries. They know what’s coming, but unlike Mr. Deffeyes, they won’t admit it.
At the same time, India and China are industrializing rapidly, causing an historic spurt in demand for oil. Shortly after we go over the peak, demand for oil will exceed supply and although we’ll still be sitting on half of the planet’s original oil supply, we’ll experience our real 9-11, because life will never be the same again. We will not slowly decrease our oil use the same way we increased it. We’ll use huge amounts of oil fighting wars to determine who controls what’s left.
Look for the People’s Republic of China to push west. Why is the United States so interested in establishing air bases in central Asia? To get between the People’s Repubic of China and the oil in the Persian Gulf. When push comes to shove, it will be the U.S and China pushing and shoving over oil; it might get nuclear. The Pentagon would rather get nuclear in Tajikistan than North America or the gulf states. The U.S. Army will permanently occupy Iraq and from Iraq attempt to control oil fields from Iran to Saudi Arabia. The nightmare for the White House – regardless of its occupant – is that the Saudis stop sharing their oil with America, forcing the U.S. Army to cross the Saudi border and igniting global jihad. Unlike the religious right, American military professionals do not long for Armageddon, but they will risk it to keep the oil flowing. It’s likely this issue was on the agenda for Dick Cheney’s secret energy meetings, if not the main topic. We’ll probably have enough troops (after the draft is reinstated) to secure Mexican and Venezuelan oil.
On the home front, the price of gas will keep going up. So long, Humvees. So long, flying overseas (or anywhere else) for vacation. Deployment, yes; vacation, no. No more questions about “paper or plastic” bags. Plastic will be the expensive, not the cheap option. Learn to whittle. Pharmaceuticals, pesticides, large-scale agriculture, trucking produce from one end of the continent to the other will fade away, not overnight, but within 20 years of passing Hubbert’s Peak. Argentine peaches and Chilean grapes during the winter months will be a memory, probably within the lifespan of Americans now in middle age.
Take a look around, realize what you have; you’ll never see a view like this again in your life. Have a banana, savor the taste, and store it in your memory. Learn to garden, plant an orchard and get to know your neighbors. In the years to come you’ll be relying on them – and they on you – like never before.
© Mark Floegel, 2005