This week’s last-minute Senate deal on judicial appointments entailed a showdown between Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee and John McCain of Arizona, men considered leading rivals for the 2008 presidential nomination. Everyone loves to handicap the great presidential derby, but it’s too early to look that far ahead. This week’s world will be long gone by November 2008.
A quick scan of the headlines indicates that the months and years ahead will give news junkies all they want and more. North Korea has both nuclear weapons and an economy on the verge of collapse. Whatever happens there will have ripple effects throughout East Asia. Iraq’s insurgency is at full boil; American generals no longer talk about “winning,” they’re trying to control the damage and praying civil war doesn’t break out. In Afghanistan, things are beyond damage control. Hamid Karzai, the glorified mayor of Kabul, left Washington empty-handed to return to a nation overrun by narco-trafficking warlords. Look for a Taliban resurgence by 2008.
George Bush, far from acknowledging that his troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are overextended and demoralized, is threatening Iran, again claiming weapons of mass destruction that his administration seems to be able to spot better than everyone else. Everyone else sees Iran sitting on the world’s largest supply of unexploited oil and natural gas. (Iran also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Forty percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait.) Ariel Sharon’s government has promised to withdraw settlers from the Gaza Strip in August and Lebanon is restive following the withdrawal of Syrian troops. All these simmering pots – and a few surprises – will probably boil over in the 40 months before the presidential election. That’s more foreign policy action than the U.S. saw between the fall of Saigon and Sept. 10, 2001.
In domestic policy, we have a runaway budget deficit (and trade deficit to match), a looming energy crisis, a kinetic health care crisis and our public schools are the worst in the industrialized world (and the only ones still debating evolution).
Also on the road to 2008 is the 2006 election, the set-up election. Two races in particular bear watching. Hillary Clinton is running for her second term as senator from New York. Republican attorney Edward Cox has announced his intention to oppose her. Thirty years ago, Mr. Cox was simultaneously a Ralph Nader acolyte and Richard Nixon’s son-in-law. He must have thing for father figures with the initials RN. National Republicans, apparently, are not satisfied with Mr. Cox’s chances, because they are actively recruiting Jeanine Pirro. Ms. Pirro has impeccable GOP credentials – she’s the tough-as-nails district attorney for Westchester County and has difficulty filing an honest income tax return.
Sen. Clinton has a 70 percent approval rating, but the question is: do Republicans really want to beat her? If Ms. Clinton loses in New York in ’06, there’s no Hillary for President in ’08 — and the Democrats might instead settle on a candidate who can actually beat Jeb Bush.
Jeb’s re-election run for Florida governor is the other race to watch in ’06. Like Ms. Clinton, Gov. Bush needs one more win on the home field to remain viable for ’08. If the Howard Dean has the guts he claims, he’ll pull out all the stops to put Jeb on the sidelines before he goes national.
(For amusement, watch Pennsylvania’s ’06 Senate race. Republican Rick Santorum should have a safe seat, but his raving about “man on dog” and comparing Democrats to Hitler have him looking vulnerable.)
If the Democrats somehow manage to seize control of the Senate, they can hold the oversight hearings that have been missing since the Iraq invasion and restore some sense of checks and balance to government.
Pessimists say it’s too late already – that American democracy died in December 2000, when Antonin Scalia rendered his opinion on Bush v. Gore. They may be right, but if we have a chance to get our country back, it will be in the months ahead. Don’t lose hope.
History in the Making
This week’s last-minute Senate deal on judicial appointments entailed a showdown between Senators Bill Frist of Tennessee and John McCain of Arizona, men considered leading rivals for the 2008 presidential nomination. Everyone loves to handicap the great presidential derby, but it’s too early to look that far ahead. This week’s world will be long gone by November 2008.
A quick scan of the headlines indicates that the months and years ahead will give news junkies all they want and more. North Korea has both nuclear weapons and an economy on the verge of collapse. Whatever happens there will have ripple effects throughout East Asia. Iraq’s insurgency is at full boil; American generals no longer talk about “winning,” they’re trying to control the damage and praying civil war doesn’t break out. In Afghanistan, things are beyond damage control. Hamid Karzai, the glorified mayor of Kabul, left Washington empty-handed to return to a nation overrun by narco-trafficking warlords. Look for a Taliban resurgence by 2008.
George Bush, far from acknowledging that his troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are overextended and demoralized, is threatening Iran, again claiming weapons of mass destruction that his administration seems to be able to spot better than everyone else. Everyone else sees Iran sitting on the world’s largest supply of unexploited oil and natural gas. (Iran also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Forty percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait.) Ariel Sharon’s government has promised to withdraw settlers from the Gaza Strip in August and Lebanon is restive following the withdrawal of Syrian troops. All these simmering pots – and a few surprises – will probably boil over in the 40 months before the presidential election. That’s more foreign policy action than the U.S. saw between the fall of Saigon and Sept. 10, 2001.
In domestic policy, we have a runaway budget deficit (and trade deficit to match), a looming energy crisis, a kinetic health care crisis and our public schools are the worst in the industrialized world (and the only ones still debating evolution).
Also on the road to 2008 is the 2006 election, the set-up election. Two races in particular bear watching. Hillary Clinton is running for her second term as senator from New York. Republican attorney Edward Cox has announced his intention to oppose her. Thirty years ago, Mr. Cox was simultaneously a Ralph Nader acolyte and Richard Nixon’s son-in-law. He must have thing for father figures with the initials RN. National Republicans, apparently, are not satisfied with Mr. Cox’s chances, because they are actively recruiting Jeanine Pirro. Ms. Pirro has impeccable GOP credentials – she’s the tough-as-nails district attorney for Westchester County and has difficulty filing an honest income tax return.
Sen. Clinton has a 70 percent approval rating, but the question is: do Republicans really want to beat her? If Ms. Clinton loses in New York in ’06, there’s no Hillary for President in ’08 — and the Democrats might instead settle on a candidate who can actually beat Jeb Bush.
Jeb’s re-election run for Florida governor is the other race to watch in ’06. Like Ms. Clinton, Gov. Bush needs one more win on the home field to remain viable for ’08. If the Howard Dean has the guts he claims, he’ll pull out all the stops to put Jeb on the sidelines before he goes national.
(For amusement, watch Pennsylvania’s ’06 Senate race. Republican Rick Santorum should have a safe seat, but his raving about “man on dog” and comparing Democrats to Hitler have him looking vulnerable.)
If the Democrats somehow manage to seize control of the Senate, they can hold the oversight hearings that have been missing since the Iraq invasion and restore some sense of checks and balance to government.
Pessimists say it’s too late already – that American democracy died in December 2000, when Antonin Scalia rendered his opinion on Bush v. Gore. They may be right, but if we have a chance to get our country back, it will be in the months ahead. Don’t lose hope.
© Mark Floegel, 2005