Thanksgiving is a past tense holiday; present tense at best. It’s not about the future, except as a subject for meditation. We can today reflect on what we’ve done with what we’ve been given and how we might use those gifts to shape our future. A worthy exercise for any last Thursday in November, it is perhaps more apt this year than ever before.
In this space six and a half years ago, I wrote about the Congressional testimony of Albert Bartlett, physics professor emeritus at the University of Colorado. In April 1999, Dr. Bartlett told Congress he expected world oil production to peak in 2005.
The idea of “peak oil” is attributed to M. King Hubbert, who worked for Shell Oil. In 1956, Mr. Hubbert predicted U.S. oil production would “peak” between 1968 and 1972. Other geologists laughed; oilmen laughed harder. They stopped laughing in 1970, when U.S. production peaked, smack dab in the middle of Mr. Hubbert’s prediction.
Ken Deffeyes, as a young man, worked at Shell with Mr. Hubbert. He went on to teach geology at Princeton. On National Public Radio on August 25, 2004, Mr. Deffeyes said he expected global oil production to peak on Thanksgiving 2005 with “an uncertainty of only about three or four weeks on either side.”
So this is it, or “it” happened around Halloween, or will happen by Christmas. We won’t know for sure until after the global oil peak occurs, because people who have oil – nations and corporations – tend to be secretive about how much they’re sitting on. A nation or corporation can hide how much it has on hand, but how much oil it brings to market is a very public fact. Sooner or later (Mr. Deffeyes thinks sooner), the price of oil will rise higher than what we’ve seen even in recent months and the usual suspects of the oil world won’t increase production, because they can’t. Then we will know we’ve gone over the peak. When it happens, when demand permanently exceeds supply, our world will change; it won’t change back.
I’ve been reading all I can about peak oil for the past month or so. Googling through the news two weeks ago, I came across a report on a Middle East finance site that the Kuwaiti Oil Company announced the Burgan oil field (the second largest on Earth) peaked at 1.7 million barrels per day. Burgan was not expected to peak for some years yet. Its peak production was predicted to be two million barrels per day and it was supposed to maintain two million bbl/day until 2045. I keep waiting for this to show up on the front pages of newspapers, but no one seems to notice.
Matthew Simmons, an oil industry banker whose clients include Halliburton (he was an energy adviser to Bush-Cheney 2000) says he thinks the Saudis, who have the world’s biggest oil field – Ghawar – have less oil than they are letting on. Mr. Simmons, like Mr. Deffeyes, thinks we’re going over the top soon, if we haven’t already.
What does it mean? For one thing, it means the airline industry, already operating on a razor-thin margin, is in deep trouble. When the price of oil tops $100 a barrel, ticket prices will rise and folks will stop taking pleasure flights to Disney World and Vegas. That will be a body blow to the tourism industry, with the expected ripple effects. Since flying half-empty jets costs about the same as flying full ones, ticket prices will jump again and business travelers will decide e-mail and videoconferences work as well as face-to-face meetings. The cycle will spin on from there. I don’t have to describe it all; you get the picture.
Another thing it means is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will be drilled. If you think environmental considerations took a beating from George W. Bush, wait’ll you see what an oil-addicted first world is capable of once withdrawal symptoms start kicking in. I take no joy in predicting drilling in the refuge, but I can’t shy away from the inevitability, not that it will do us any good.
Finally, it means history will be kind to Jimmy Carter. Trained as an engineer, Mr. Carter correctly read the meaning of the American oil peak and the Arab oil embargo of 1972-73. When he attained the Oval Office, Mr. Carter urged us to conserve energy, to be prudent, to invest our financial and intellectual resources in finding alternative sources of energy. It’s a shame we didn’t listen to him.
Over the Top
Thanksgiving is a past tense holiday; present tense at best. It’s not about the future, except as a subject for meditation. We can today reflect on what we’ve done with what we’ve been given and how we might use those gifts to shape our future. A worthy exercise for any last Thursday in November, it is perhaps more apt this year than ever before.
In this space six and a half years ago, I wrote about the Congressional testimony of Albert Bartlett, physics professor emeritus at the University of Colorado. In April 1999, Dr. Bartlett told Congress he expected world oil production to peak in 2005.
The idea of “peak oil” is attributed to M. King Hubbert, who worked for Shell Oil. In 1956, Mr. Hubbert predicted U.S. oil production would “peak” between 1968 and 1972. Other geologists laughed; oilmen laughed harder. They stopped laughing in 1970, when U.S. production peaked, smack dab in the middle of Mr. Hubbert’s prediction.
Ken Deffeyes, as a young man, worked at Shell with Mr. Hubbert. He went on to teach geology at Princeton. On National Public Radio on August 25, 2004, Mr. Deffeyes said he expected global oil production to peak on Thanksgiving 2005 with “an uncertainty of only about three or four weeks on either side.”
So this is it, or “it” happened around Halloween, or will happen by Christmas. We won’t know for sure until after the global oil peak occurs, because people who have oil – nations and corporations – tend to be secretive about how much they’re sitting on. A nation or corporation can hide how much it has on hand, but how much oil it brings to market is a very public fact. Sooner or later (Mr. Deffeyes thinks sooner), the price of oil will rise higher than what we’ve seen even in recent months and the usual suspects of the oil world won’t increase production, because they can’t. Then we will know we’ve gone over the peak. When it happens, when demand permanently exceeds supply, our world will change; it won’t change back.
I’ve been reading all I can about peak oil for the past month or so. Googling through the news two weeks ago, I came across a report on a Middle East finance site that the Kuwaiti Oil Company announced the Burgan oil field (the second largest on Earth) peaked at 1.7 million barrels per day. Burgan was not expected to peak for some years yet. Its peak production was predicted to be two million barrels per day and it was supposed to maintain two million bbl/day until 2045. I keep waiting for this to show up on the front pages of newspapers, but no one seems to notice.
Matthew Simmons, an oil industry banker whose clients include Halliburton (he was an energy adviser to Bush-Cheney 2000) says he thinks the Saudis, who have the world’s biggest oil field – Ghawar – have less oil than they are letting on. Mr. Simmons, like Mr. Deffeyes, thinks we’re going over the top soon, if we haven’t already.
What does it mean? For one thing, it means the airline industry, already operating on a razor-thin margin, is in deep trouble. When the price of oil tops $100 a barrel, ticket prices will rise and folks will stop taking pleasure flights to Disney World and Vegas. That will be a body blow to the tourism industry, with the expected ripple effects. Since flying half-empty jets costs about the same as flying full ones, ticket prices will jump again and business travelers will decide e-mail and videoconferences work as well as face-to-face meetings. The cycle will spin on from there. I don’t have to describe it all; you get the picture.
Another thing it means is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will be drilled. If you think environmental considerations took a beating from George W. Bush, wait’ll you see what an oil-addicted first world is capable of once withdrawal symptoms start kicking in. I take no joy in predicting drilling in the refuge, but I can’t shy away from the inevitability, not that it will do us any good.
Finally, it means history will be kind to Jimmy Carter. Trained as an engineer, Mr. Carter correctly read the meaning of the American oil peak and the Arab oil embargo of 1972-73. When he attained the Oval Office, Mr. Carter urged us to conserve energy, to be prudent, to invest our financial and intellectual resources in finding alternative sources of energy. It’s a shame we didn’t listen to him.
© Mark Floegel, 2005
Ken Deffeyes on NPR
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=3870191)
Burgan oil field
http://www.ameinfo.com/71519.html