Tuesday was not a good day. The Burlington morning newspaper waved a banner headline announcing IBM, the state’s largest employer, is cutting 500 jobs here. A chart accompanying the story showed IBM Vermont added 2,000 jobs during the eight years of the Clinton administration and every one of those jobs has disappeared in the 30 months George W. Bush has occupied the Oval Office.
Below the fold was a photo of the flag-draped coffin of Private First Class Kyle Gilbert. Kyle was 20 years old, the fourth Vermonter and the 296th American to die in Iraq since March. Like many Vermonters, I shook my head at the news and went to work, happy to have a job but wondering why we are putting young people like Kyle in harm’s way.
The news was worse on the way home. Twin explosions, both suicide bombs, in Iraq and Israel. Over a dozen dead in each location, scores wounded, the hopes for peace and reconciliation shattered.
In Jerusalem, the bus bomb was just another step in the danse macabre between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We know what steps come next – the West Bank and Gaza are shut down, the homes of the bombers’ relatives are bulldozed, the Israeli Defense Force kills a few leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad with rockets, maybe some bystanders are killed, maybe not.
The bus that was attacked carried Orthodox Jews who had just completed their prayers. Many of the dead and injured were children. Even for suicide bombers, this is a new low. The Israeli reaction will be brutal; Ariel Sharon’s hold on political power will depend on it.
What happens next? Maybe the peace process breaks down entirely, the intifada blazes again and Israeli settlers start seizing more land. That would look familiar. Perhaps Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who was trying to prevent this type of bombing in the moment it occurred, will send his security forces after the militants. Then what, Palestinian civil war?
In Baghdad, Tuesday’s bombing also represents a new kind of war. The U.S. military was getting used to the small-arms attacks on street patrols and convoys; troops were learning to protect themselves and strike back quickly. Bystanders killed by both sides were not making anyone popular.
Then suddenly, the tactics changed. The northern oil pipeline, recently opened, was bombed twice, delaying the day when oil profit can pay for Iraqi reconstruction. Then a Baghdad water main was attacked, leaving residents to parch in the desert heat. (Iraqis turned on the news to see America’s power grid crash catastrophically and come back almost immediately, while they still can’t get power. It’s not a fair comparison, but people without power or water in 120-degree heat are not inclined to be fair.) Now the United Nations headquarters has been destroyed, killing the man who was the best chance for peace and reconstruction.
All this means one of two things – either the Iraqi opposition fighting the Americans since the invasion is learning, adapting and shifting tactics – or – a new faction has entered the field and has joined or taken over the existing resistance. Either way, it’s bad news for the Americans.
Again, what happens next? In the short term, already overtaxed American soldiers get stretched even tighter. The roster of sites to be protected grows longer to include infrastructure of all kinds. The tighter the generals stretch the troops, the more vulnerable they become to attack and the more young men like Kyle Gilbert die.
What’s the answer? More troops. American troops? Who wants to be the president that sends units back for their second tour of duty in Iraq? European troops, maybe? Aside from a few token contributions, Europeans are not willing to send troops to serve under American command, so the remaining option is to turn over military command to the United Nations, something Mr. Bush has long opposed.
The truth is, I can’t make predictions for the future of Israel and Iraq. I can say it will be brutal and stupid. Tuesday, August 18th, 2003 was not as bad a day as Tuesday, September 11th, 2001, but it was a turning point. It may have been the day when it became impossible for George Bush to be elected to a second term. In one sense, that’s good news, but with a sobering solemnity, it also looks like no way out.
No Way Out
Tuesday was not a good day. The Burlington morning newspaper waved a banner headline announcing IBM, the state’s largest employer, is cutting 500 jobs here. A chart accompanying the story showed IBM Vermont added 2,000 jobs during the eight years of the Clinton administration and every one of those jobs has disappeared in the 30 months George W. Bush has occupied the Oval Office.
Below the fold was a photo of the flag-draped coffin of Private First Class Kyle Gilbert. Kyle was 20 years old, the fourth Vermonter and the 296th American to die in Iraq since March. Like many Vermonters, I shook my head at the news and went to work, happy to have a job but wondering why we are putting young people like Kyle in harm’s way.
The news was worse on the way home. Twin explosions, both suicide bombs, in Iraq and Israel. Over a dozen dead in each location, scores wounded, the hopes for peace and reconciliation shattered.
In Jerusalem, the bus bomb was just another step in the danse macabre between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We know what steps come next – the West Bank and Gaza are shut down, the homes of the bombers’ relatives are bulldozed, the Israeli Defense Force kills a few leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad with rockets, maybe some bystanders are killed, maybe not.
The bus that was attacked carried Orthodox Jews who had just completed their prayers. Many of the dead and injured were children. Even for suicide bombers, this is a new low. The Israeli reaction will be brutal; Ariel Sharon’s hold on political power will depend on it.
What happens next? Maybe the peace process breaks down entirely, the intifada blazes again and Israeli settlers start seizing more land. That would look familiar. Perhaps Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, who was trying to prevent this type of bombing in the moment it occurred, will send his security forces after the militants. Then what, Palestinian civil war?
In Baghdad, Tuesday’s bombing also represents a new kind of war. The U.S. military was getting used to the small-arms attacks on street patrols and convoys; troops were learning to protect themselves and strike back quickly. Bystanders killed by both sides were not making anyone popular.
Then suddenly, the tactics changed. The northern oil pipeline, recently opened, was bombed twice, delaying the day when oil profit can pay for Iraqi reconstruction. Then a Baghdad water main was attacked, leaving residents to parch in the desert heat. (Iraqis turned on the news to see America’s power grid crash catastrophically and come back almost immediately, while they still can’t get power. It’s not a fair comparison, but people without power or water in 120-degree heat are not inclined to be fair.) Now the United Nations headquarters has been destroyed, killing the man who was the best chance for peace and reconstruction.
All this means one of two things – either the Iraqi opposition fighting the Americans since the invasion is learning, adapting and shifting tactics – or – a new faction has entered the field and has joined or taken over the existing resistance. Either way, it’s bad news for the Americans.
Again, what happens next? In the short term, already overtaxed American soldiers get stretched even tighter. The roster of sites to be protected grows longer to include infrastructure of all kinds. The tighter the generals stretch the troops, the more vulnerable they become to attack and the more young men like Kyle Gilbert die.
What’s the answer? More troops. American troops? Who wants to be the president that sends units back for their second tour of duty in Iraq? European troops, maybe? Aside from a few token contributions, Europeans are not willing to send troops to serve under American command, so the remaining option is to turn over military command to the United Nations, something Mr. Bush has long opposed.
The truth is, I can’t make predictions for the future of Israel and Iraq. I can say it will be brutal and stupid. Tuesday, August 18th, 2003 was not as bad a day as Tuesday, September 11th, 2001, but it was a turning point. It may have been the day when it became impossible for George Bush to be elected to a second term. In one sense, that’s good news, but with a sobering solemnity, it also looks like no way out.