This ain’t kid stuff. If I’m going to put one of these things up on the web, I should have the courage to make some predictions. If I’m wrong, I’ll take my lumps; if I’m right, I’ll try not to gloat.

On the Democratic side, my prediction is: Hillary Clinton comes out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses are complex processes with “preference groups” and “viability thresholds.” It’s important to note that this is public democracy. It’s not a secret ballot, voters have to go and stand under their candidate’s banner.

There are eight candidates on the Democratic side. After the first session, the supporters of candidates not deemed viable will be asked to stand with their candidate of second choice.

People supporting Bill Richardson or Joe Biden or Chris Dodd – all of whom are unlikely to pass the viability threshold – go into the evening knowing their man is unlikely to win, so they stand with their initial candidate to send a message. It’s a form of idealism. Ms. Clinton has not presented herself as the candidate of idealism, she presents herself as the candidate of inevitability.

For that reason, I think Barack Obama and John Edwards will pick up most of the supporters whose first choices didn’t make the cut.

I’m not saying both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards will beat Ms. Clinton, but I think one of the them will. I think Mr. Obama more likely to do so than Mr. Edwards.

This will not mean Ms. Clinton is out of the race. She has a good organization, a solid war chest and a base of support in New Hampshire. But she will come out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

On the Republican side, I think it will be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain. (n.b. – GOP caucuses in Iowa are nothing like the Democrats’. It’s straightforward ballots with no second choices.)

My sense is Mr. Huckabee wins by default, with Mr. Romney – for all the money he’s spent in Iowa – coming across as too phony. Rudy Giuliani is a) too scary and b) has not campaigned much in Iowa. Mr. McCain – who has also not campaigned much in Iowa – is the default third place finisher.

I could be wrong about third place. Ron Paul, with his zealous followers, could turn in a surprising performance.

Cheer or jeer on Friday morning.