New Hampshire is harder to predict than Iowa. Rather than bringing clarity to the race, Thursday night’s upsets make New Hampshire more complicated.

The wild cards in the Granite State are the independents, who can vote in either primary (but not both). Conventional political wisdom says they will throw their support to John McCain and Barack Obama, but which man will get more?

On the Democratic side, I predict Mr. Obama and Hillary Clinton will finish closer than they did in Iowa, maybe much closer. This is not good news for Ms. Clinton. Anything less than a decisive victory will be harped on by the media as continued weakness for her campaign. She still has an organization, but South Carolina was going to be a tough state for her anyway. Her campaign is beginning to reel.

I’ll go out on a limb and say Mr. Obama will attract enough independents to beat Ms. Clinton by a nose.

Mr. Edwards will finish a semi-distant third, still alive and hoping for great things in South Carolina. (He may be disappointed. Mr. Obama may have gathered so much steam by then as to make Mr. Edwards marginal.)

Bill Richardson, who was always running for vice president, is staying in until he can decide which candidate to endorse as he drops. He’ll drop after New Hampshire and endorse Mr. Obama. That will be a good call for him, as Mr. Obama would make better use of Mr. Richardson’s foreign policy advice than Ms. Clinton would.

On the Republican side, I think it will be close between Mr. McCain and Mitt Romney. New Hampshire liked Mr. McCain in 2000 and Mr. Romney’s poor finish in Iowa hurts him more than Ms. Clinton’s hurts her. Republicans love a bandwagon, but New Hampshire Republicans are not about to jump on Mike Huckabee’s. So Mr. Huckabee’s win will hurt Mr. Romney without helping Mr. Huckabee, who will finish a distant third. Mr. McCain will pick up enough independents to pull out the win.

If voters feel especially fickle, the third/fourth place finish will be close between Mr. Huckabee and Fred Thompson, giving Mr. Thompson just enough support to once again prevent him from quitting and forcing him to soldier on to South Carolina.

It would be amusing if that happened, but I don’t think it will. I think Mr. Thompson and Duncan Hunter are finished after Tuesday.

Recap –

Dems: Barak Obama just ahead of Hillary Clinton with John Edwards semi-distant third, Bill Richardson drops out and endorses Mr. Obama.

GOP: John McCain just ahead of Mitt Romney with Mike Huckabee distant third. Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter drop out.