01/04/2008

Iowa Results

Tuesday I predicted Hillary Clinton would leave Iowa weaker than she went in, that Barack Obama or John Edwards (but not both) would finish ahead of Ms. Clinton in the caucuses. I predicted the Republican finish would be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain.

I was not so wrong that I mind taking a lump or two. I was not so right that I can gloat.

Ms. Clinton’s campaign is far weaker this morning than it was 24 hours ago. I was surprised by the size of Mr. Obama’s eight-point margin of victory and Mr. Edwards squeaking into second-place by half a percentage point.

On the GOP side, I was surprised Mr. Huckabee’s margin over Mr. Romney was nine points, although unlike Mr. Huckabee, I don’t see the hand of Jesus in it. I was stunned that Fred Thompson beat John McCain for third (again, by less than half a percentage point). I think no one is more disappointed by that result than Mr. Thompson. In recent days he’s been sounding like a man looking for a reason to drop from the race and now he doesn’t have one. On to New Hampshire, Fred.

Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd did drop from the race Thursday night after each of them failed to break the one percent threshold. Inexplicably, Dems Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich and Republican Duncan Hunter – all of whom scored zero in the caucuses – are still “in” it, whatever that means.

Rudy Giuliani, who recently led national polls, finished in sixth place, behind Ron Paul, but supposedly “that’s part of the plan,” same kind of “planning” that put his emergency response center in the number one terrorist target.

New Hampshire predictions tomorrow.

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Electoral Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (0)
01/03/2008

The Power of Belief

I must have been seven years old. My dad was helping me learn to ride a two-wheeler. He held the bike steady as I mounted and found the pedals. Then, holding the frame, he ran along behind as I cruised the sidewalk.

It felt good, I was doing this, but I was apprehensive. “Keep pedaling, keep pedaling, you’re doing great,” Dad said. Then he stopped speaking.

“How’m I doing?…. uh, Dad? …. Dad?” I looked over my shoulder. Dad, using the trick all fathers seem to use, had let go of the frame 30 feet back. I’d been riding all on my own.

Problem was, I didn’t believe it. I believed I was being supported. Belief and reality conflicted, belief won, I toppled onto a lawn.

As is so often – perhaps too often – the case, the truth is what we believe it to be.

In Sunday’s New York Times, historian Eric Foner wrote that January 1 was the 200th anniversary of the prohibition on the importation of slaves into the United States. Today’s news reports the New Jersey legislature is considering formally apologizing that the state ever allowed slavery. If it does, it will join the states of Alabama, North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia, which have enacted similar measures.
Continue reading »

By floegel | Posted in Civil Liberty, Commentary | Tagged , , | Comments (0)
01/02/2008

Welcome to the Future

Oil futures hit $100 a barrel.

That didn’t take long.

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Economy, Energy, Oil | Tagged | Comments (0)
01/01/2008

Iowa Predictions

This ain’t kid stuff. If I’m going to put one of these things up on the web, I should have the courage to make some predictions. If I’m wrong, I’ll take my lumps; if I’m right, I’ll try not to gloat.

On the Democratic side, my prediction is: Hillary Clinton comes out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses are complex processes with “preference groups” and “viability thresholds.” It’s important to note that this is public democracy. It’s not a secret ballot, voters have to go and stand under their candidate’s banner.

There are eight candidates on the Democratic side. After the first session, the supporters of candidates not deemed viable will be asked to stand with their candidate of second choice.

People supporting Bill Richardson or Joe Biden or Chris Dodd – all of whom are unlikely to pass the viability threshold – go into the evening knowing their man is unlikely to win, so they stand with their initial candidate to send a message. It’s a form of idealism. Ms. Clinton has not presented herself as the candidate of idealism, she presents herself as the candidate of inevitability.

For that reason, I think Barack Obama and John Edwards will pick up most of the supporters whose first choices didn’t make the cut.

I’m not saying both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards will beat Ms. Clinton, but I think one of the them will. I think Mr. Obama more likely to do so than Mr. Edwards.

This will not mean Ms. Clinton is out of the race. She has a good organization, a solid war chest and a base of support in New Hampshire. But she will come out of Iowa weaker than she went in.

On the Republican side, I think it will be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain. (n.b. – GOP caucuses in Iowa are nothing like the Democrats’. It’s straightforward ballots with no second choices.)

My sense is Mr. Huckabee wins by default, with Mr. Romney – for all the money he’s spent in Iowa – coming across as too phony. Rudy Giuliani is a) too scary and b) has not campaigned much in Iowa. Mr. McCain – who has also not campaigned much in Iowa – is the default third place finisher.

I could be wrong about third place. Ron Paul, with his zealous followers, could turn in a surprising performance.

Cheer or jeer on Friday morning.

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Electoral Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (0)
12/31/2007

2007 By the Numbers

Not all the numbers, but some significant ones.

As we ring out the year, the price of gas averages $2.98 per gallon in the US, up 64 cents from a year ago. The price of oil is $96.93 per barrel, up from $55.95 at the end of 2006.

Gold is selling for $840 an ounce, up 32 percent in the last year and the Euro’s worth $1.47, up 11 percent.

Now, here’s a curious thing. If you look at global oil supply and demand numbers on the federal government’s Energy Information Administration’s home page (scroll down, there’s a link to an Excel sheet for “world oil balance” in the lower left corner) you’ll see the new numbers were posted 12 Dec.

I’ve been watching this sheet for a couple years and this is the first time stats have been updated with only the supply side numbers (for the 3rd quarter ’07) and no demand numbers.

If you look at the world supply/demand numbers by quarter, you’ll see the average daily supply has lagged behind demand for three straight quarters (since 3rd quarter ’06) and maybe four, once the 3Q07 demand numbers are posted.

I’ve never before seen demand exceed supply for three quarters in a row. I’ll also note world production hit a peak in 3Q06 at a daily average of 85.14 million barrels/day.

The oil companies and the governments tell use there’s plenty of “unconventional oil” out there, so we shouldn’t worry about supply. I agree, sort of. What we’re probably seeing here is the lag time it takes to get all that nasty tar sand and shale oil production up and running.

(I could go on at length about how polluting and greenhouse gassing these sources are, but that’s for another day.)

There’s no doubt in my mind the nations/companies pumping conventional oil have been lying about their reserves and those reserves seem to be declining at a rate more precipitous than most anticipated.

So I’m thinking about three trend lines 1) decline of conventional oil fields, 2) expansion of unconventional fields and 3) demand curve, given the steady appetite of the west and the burgeoning appetite of the east.

We may not see peak oil in our lifetime, but if demand outstrips supply and supply never catches up, it’s the same thing.

Demand destruction is the factor yet to be realized.

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Economy, Energy, Global Warming, Oil, Peak Oil | Tagged , , | Comments (0)
12/30/2007

The Cold Grows Weaker

“As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger.”

That’s the old Vermont weather adage that refers to the fact that every year just after winter solstice, the thermometer heads toward zero. Vermont has always had white Christmases and New Year’s Eve is usually unutterably cold. Good night to stay inside.

This year, we had snow, sleet and ice on Thanksgiving and huge dumps of snow right after. Burlington schools took their first snow day of the year on December 3rd, which seemed like an ominous portent at the time. The temperature was in the teens. The usual people grumbled their usual complaints about “Global warming – big deal!” as they struggled to shovel out.

Then it got warm. Our white Christmas was the residual snow the 40-degree days couldn’t melt away fast enough. Now, post-solstice, the cold refuses to grow stronger.

I am by no means predicting a mild winter. Global warming is not a straight-line phenomenon and anyone who prefers one-day (or one-year) observations over trends is a fool.

Regardless of what people say, the real mouth is where the money is. Today’s Burlington Free Press reports that the Trapp Family Lodge in Stowe purchased a snow-making machine for cross-country ski trails, a first for the area.

It seems a prudent investment in an era when the sky can no longer be trusted to deliver the snow, but I have to wonder what the amortization is like.

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Global Warming | Tagged , | Comments (0)
12/29/2007

It’s the Only Thing

Illegal drugs are big news here in Vermont. In Windsor county, Robert Sand the state’s attorney (the equivalent of a district attorney) has long been an advocate of reforming marijuana laws. He says prosecuting cases and sending people to jail for small amounts of marijuana is a waste of taxpayer money and diverts resources from serious crime.

Mr. Sand recently came under fire from the governor for allowing a first time marijuana offender to be sent to a drug diversion program. Gov. Jim Douglas asked state police in Mr. Sand’s jurisdiction to sent new marijuana cases directly to the state attorney general’s office.

Public sentiment was clearly on Mr. Sand’s side and the governor had to back down.

Saturday’s local paper carried a story about a star high school basketball player who pleaded guilty to marijuana possession and was given a nine-month deferred sentence (if he keeps his nose clean, the record’s expunged in nine months) and will face no sanctions from his school or team, because his crime was committed in the off-season.

Reading deeper into the story, we find the young athlete was not merely caught with a joint, but had cocaine, four digital scales and unexplained deposits in his bank account. So, it’s not a kid with a joint, it’s a coke dealer.

The athlete’s parents turned him in. A wrenching decision for them no doubt, but also a savvy one. If you find out your kid is dealing coke, don’t wait for the inevitable drug bust, because your kid will go to prison. Instead, get a good lawyer negotiate a deal with the state’s attorney before you surrender the kid to the cops and with luck, he’ll get off with a suspended sentence and will be out there starting for the local high school five.

No word as yet from the governor that he intends to intervene in high school sports.

As Vince Lombardi said, “Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.”

By floegel | Posted in Asides, Civil Liberty | Tagged , , , , | Comments (0)