Surged or Scourged?

Six to nine months after the surge in U.S. troop levels in Iraq, violence is down, or at least we’re told violence is down. How would we know, really? Pentagon press releases? The mainstream media?

Last week’s issue of the New Yorker has a piece on the surge by Jon Lee Anderson, in which he reports that Moqtada al-Sadr’s Madhi Army has been standing down since August.

Anderson writes that al-Sadr, worried about losing control of his fighters, ordered a six-month stand down, while he reconsolidates his power.

The Madhi cease-fire, if it indeed lasts six months, will end in March, about the time the presidential primaries will be settling on two major-party candidates.

The Iraq Double Standard

The Associated Press reports today that its award-winning Iraqi photographer Bilal Hussein, who has been held without charges by the U.S. military for 19 months, will finally be brought to trial. In the year and a half Mr. Hussein has been jailed, the Pentagon has changed its story several times, all the while making vague noises about Mr. Hussein being linked to anti-American insurgents.

Whether he is or isn’t is hard to say, since the military has never produced any evidence against Mr. Hussein, a practice which might continue, forcing his defense attorneys to “work in the dark.”

Meanwhile, Blackwater guards continue to roam Baghdad, automatic weapons in hand, despite their well-witnessed killing of 17 civilians in September. A grand jury in Washington has been empanelled to investigate the incident and other involving private security guards in Iraq, but more than 60 days after the shooting, the situation on the ground remains unchanged in essence.

Two cases of justice delayed and denied in the land democracy forgot.

Never Forget

Four hundred and ten years later, the quality of mercy is still not strained. The ability to forgive is still a boon, both to the transgressor and the transgressed. There are, however, other issues. There are questions of justice and how we conduct ourselves as a society.

Twenty-two years ago, a team of French commandos planted two mines against the hull of the Greenpeace vessel Rainbow Warrior in the harbor at Auckland, New Zealand. The Rainbow Warrior was in the Pacific to protest French nuclear tests at Mururoa atoll. The mines detonated late in the evening, sinking the Rainbow Warrior at her berth and killing the crew photographer, Fernando Pereira.

It’s estimated that 13 French agents were involved in the operation; only two were caught and convicted. New Zealand released the convicts early and quashed the other arrest warrants under pressure from the French government.

Although the exposure of state-sponsored terrorist activities by France was a major embarrassment and ruined several careers, the man who led the team of bombers, Louis Pierre Dillais, came away relatively unscathed, due to family connections in the government. His career in the French military’s special services continued for another decade, until he was caught placing wiretaps in the office of one of his superiors.
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Feeding Back

For years climate scientists have warned rising temperatures will create “feedback loops” – self-perpetuating cycles in which cause and consequence take on lives of their own.  Warmer temperatures melt pack ice in the Arctic Ocean, dark water reflect less light than ice and snow, hastening the melting of the remaining ice, creating more surface water, etc.  Warmer temperatures melt permafrost, releasing carbon dioxide, raising temperatures, etc.

Natural feedback loops are only part of the problem.  In Indonesia, developers are planning to cut away 11,000 square miles of peatland forest.  These forests, as the name suggests, grow in peat bogs.  Cutting the trees and draining the bogs results in the release of huge amounts of carbon dioxide, to say nothing of the loss of the carbon-absorbing capacity of the forest.

The peat forests are cut to make way for palm oil plantations and the much of the palm oil will be used to make biofuel.  Aside from our rapid depletion of petroleum, the demand for biofuel is rising because people want – sort of – to do their part to fight global warming.  People at least want to be told that making a small change in their lives – like using biofuel instead of petroleum – can “help save the planet.”  Palm oil does make a nice biofuel, delivering 635 gallons of oil per acre, as opposed to corn’s 18 per acre.  Replacing Indonesian peat forest with palm oil plantations, however, and shipping that oil halfway around the world to put in a minivan or SUV is not really helping anything but the feedback loop.  The faster the forests are cut, the more the planet warms and the more attractive biofuel looks, at least superficially.
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Twelve Dollars a Year

In the late winter of 2006, the citizens of Burlington, Vermont prepared to elect one of five candidates to a three-year term for an open mayor’s seat. At one forum, a citizen stood up and asked, “Within the next mayoral term, it’s likely the price of oil will hit $90 a barrel and gas will be $5 a gallon. If elected, what will you do to prepare the city for this?”

A few candidates mumbled platitudes about energy, environment and economy, but no one had an answer. (The price of oil then was $56/barrel and gas around $2.25/gallon.) Less than two years later, oil has topped $90/barrel and gas is around $2.90/gallon, indicating the price rise has yet to work its way through the system.

(Just two years ago, Hurricane Katrina caused a “massive jump” in the price of oil. What was the “unheard of” price oil was then demanding? Sixty dollars a barrel.)
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Weird Little Gift for America

The autumn afternoons are ripe and warm; the mornings are heavy with dew that is not yet frost, but soon. It’s the annual nostalgia for the summer passed and anxiety for the winter to be endured. I was staring through the window at the blaze orange of a sugar maple the other day, caught up in the feeling of time passing and started thinking that it’s more than the summer of ‘07 that’s slipping away.

September 11, 2001 was the late summer day when everything changed, just a little. Since then we’ve started wars against two Muslim nations and now we’re contemplating a third. Weird thing is, most of us really don’t feel it. Some extra hassle at the airport, some extra buzz at the top of the evening news, occasionally a local kid gets killed overseas. There’s wiretapping and e-mail surveillance, but we don’t really notice those, do we?

Wednesday’s New York Times carried a story about George Bush’s new sanctions against Iran. Do you feel like you’re living in a nation that’s about to open a third front in a world war? I don’t. Much has been made of the fact that in the five years since the U.S. first started bombing Afghanistan; no real sacrifice has been asked of the majority of Americans. Sure, we’ve asked much – too much – from our military and reserve personnel, but even counting military families, it’s a sacrifice borne by two or three million people from a nation of 300 million.
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The Money Primary

Early in the Republican primary race to see who would challenge Bill Clinton in 1996, then-Texas Senator Phil Gramm said, “The only primary that counts is the money primary and I’ve already won it.” Mr. Gramm raised and spent an impressive $20 million, but he was nonetheless out of the race before New Hampshire citizens got a chance to vote. He and his wife were later caught up in the Enron scandal.

Despite his inept run, Mr. Gramm was not completely incorrect about the money. The fact that Rudy Giuliani is raising more money from other people than Mitt Romney is willing to kick in from his personal fortune speaks well for Mr. Giuliani’s chances. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are leaving all other contenders in the dust. Not only do candidates need cash to get their message out via commercials and yard signs, but the reporters who constitute “free media” tend to ignore candidates who do not have scores of millions in their war chests.

In the 21st century, there’s another “money primary.” The Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa runs real-money political futures markets as part of its research and teaching mission. Futures markets have long been a staple of commodity trading. If a seller is willing to deliver a bushel of corn in April 2008 for one dollar and you think the price of a bushel of corn next April will be two dollars, then you buy as much corn as you can for a dollar a bushel and pay nothing until next April. If your prediction is right, you’ll double your money. If, instead, the price of corn is 50 cent a bushel, you’ll pay twice as much as the corn is worth.
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