I have a hard time setting aside my skepticism when it comes to politics, but when this landed in my inbox yesterday, I thought, “Maybe I’ll finally have the chance to vote for something…
Last October, I wrote about the electronic political markets at the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa. I noted then that the market had been eerily prescient in the 2000 election, predicting Al Gore would get the most votes, but George Bush would win the election. As the poet said, “Noting gold […]
No excuses. I purposely made my New Hampshire prediction on Saturday, because I didn’t want to be influenced by the weekend polls. My ulterior motive was that if I called it correctly from three days out, I’d look really smart. I don’t look smart this morning, but if I’d had access to those weekend polls, […]
New Hampshire is harder to predict than Iowa. Rather than bringing clarity to the race, Thursday night’s upsets make New Hampshire more complicated. The wild cards in the Granite State are the independents, who can vote in either primary (but not both). Conventional political wisdom says they will throw their support to John McCain and […]
Tuesday I predicted Hillary Clinton would leave Iowa weaker than she went in, that Barack Obama or John Edwards (but not both) would finish ahead of Ms. Clinton in the caucuses. I predicted the Republican finish would be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain. I was not so wrong that I mind taking a lump […]
This ain’t kid stuff. If I’m going to put one of these things up on the web, I should have the courage to make some predictions. If I’m wrong, I’ll take my lumps; if I’m right, I’ll try not to gloat. On the Democratic side, my prediction is: Hillary Clinton comes out of Iowa weaker […]
Two pieces in the MSM flagships today on one theme – fairness. In the New York Times, Paul Krugman compares Barack Obama’s health plan to John Edwards’s and Hillary Clinton’s and finds it wanting. The reason: Mr. Obama would not make health insurance mandatory. People could choose to remain uninsured, then opt into the system […]