Last October, I wrote about the electronic political markets at the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa.
I noted then that the market had been eerily prescient in the 2000 election, predicting Al Gore would get the most votes, but George Bush would win the election.
As the poet said, “Noting gold can stay,” [...]
No excuses.
I purposely made my New Hampshire prediction on Saturday, because I didn’t want to be influenced by the weekend polls. My ulterior motive was that if I called it correctly from three days out, I’d look really smart.
I don’t look smart this morning, but if I’d had access to those weekend polls, I’d [...]
New Hampshire is harder to predict than Iowa. Rather than bringing clarity to the race, Thursday night’s upsets make New Hampshire more complicated.
The wild cards in the Granite State are the independents, who can vote in either primary (but not both). Conventional political wisdom says they will throw their support to John McCain [...]
Tuesday I predicted Hillary Clinton would leave Iowa weaker than she went in, that Barack Obama or John Edwards (but not both) would finish ahead of Ms. Clinton in the caucuses. I predicted the Republican finish would be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain.
I was not so wrong that I mind taking a lump [...]
By floegel
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Posted in Asides, Electoral Politics
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Also tagged Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani
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This ain’t kid stuff. If I’m going to put one of these things up on the web, I should have the courage to make some predictions. If I’m wrong, I’ll take my lumps; if I’m right, I’ll try not to gloat.
On the Democratic side, my prediction is: Hillary Clinton comes out of [...]
By floegel
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Posted in Asides, Electoral Politics
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Also tagged Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani
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I’ve never been a Bill Clinton fan, but one thing I admired about him was his refusal to throw mud on George H.W. Bush during the 1992 campaign. When asked about rumors circulating that Mr. Bush had a mistress, Mr. Clinton replied: “I’m not gonna comment. I didn’t like it when people said [...]
Tom Tancredo, the Republican congressman from Colorado is running for president, but he’s not running for president. He has no chance of winning the nomination; he’s running to inject his racist, vindictive views on immigration into the debate.
One-issue candidates seeking to shift the dynamic of a race are nothing new, but they’re rarely as [...]
